Clear the dark clouds and see the sunshine.

Having been involved in event contracts for these years, my experience is — you can only do swing trading, because in the face of a clear trend, as long as the market doesn't have drastic fluctuations, you can basically make stable profits. When you successfully make two correct trades in a row, you silently smile; when you get stopped out, you realize how difficult this path really is.

What I want to emphasize most is that you must distinguish between event contracts and gambling. If you insist that event contracts are gambling, then you might as well just gamble directly, there's no need to bother with this. Frankly speaking, without news support, technical analysis, or indicator backing, any operation is pointless. Being hit by stop-loss hunts, wash trading, and various forms of anxiety, constantly worrying and losing sleep, ultimately ending up with all your capital gone.

My personal approach is to only do event contracts on Bitcoin (大饼), and use regular contracts for altcoins (二饼). Why this division? Because event contracts have higher certainty, but they also test your psychological resilience more. Most people fail because they lack strict exit discipline, thinking they can predict market movements, only to be harshly taught by reality.

Event contracts focus on probabilistic advantage, not a gamble. You need sufficient capital management, strict risk control, and enough patience to wait for real opportunities. Those who do well are often the ones who can endure the most.