Over the past month, Bitcoin has been oscillating at high levels, but the data beneath the market tells an interesting story — two completely opposite forces are pulling in different directions.

The US side is accelerating withdrawals. CME BTC futures open interest has fallen from about $12.5 billion to $10 billion, which is not a small number. Meanwhile, a major exchange's spot holdings have been consistently at a negative premium, and Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows in December. The basis between futures and spot is also narrowing. All these signs point to the same fact — US institutions are doing year-end accounting, deleveraging, and reducing holdings at high levels.

Interestingly, the actions of Asian institutions are completely opposite. While US institutions are offloading, a major exchange's BTC holdings have been steadily increasing. This divergence is not a coincidence but reflects strategic differences among market participants. US institutions may be locking in annual gains, while Asian players are accumulating at low prices. In the short term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly, but this pattern of institutional divergence is worth paying attention to.