Although this round of the BTC bull market has come to an end, looking back at its wave pattern is actually quite interesting. Based on my years of observation of Bitcoin cycles, I’ve found that the structure of each bear market decline often contains clues from the previous bull market’s upward pattern. Therefore, understanding the wave movements of this bull market can help in judging how the subsequent bear market might decline.

Let’s start with the data. In this bull market, Bitcoin’s performance has been very textbook—an unmistakably clear five-wave impulsive structure.

**Wave 1** (November 21, 2022, to April 14, 2023): Took about 5 months, rising from 15,500 to 31,000, doubling in value. **Wave 2** (April 14, 2023, to September 11, 2023): Also around 5 months, but this time a retracement, dropping from 31,000 back to 24,900, a 20% correction, exactly 0.33 of Wave 1’s length—this ratio is very important.

**Wave 3** (September 11, 2023, to March 13, 2024): Lasting 6 months, accelerating upward from 24,900 to 73,700, a 196% increase, making it the most aggressive wave in the entire bull market. Immediately following is **Wave 4** (March 13, 2024, to September 6, 2024): Another 6-month correction, retracing from 73,700 down to 52,500, a 29% decline, maintaining the 0.33 retracement ratio.

Finally, **Wave 5** (September 6, 2024, to October 6, 2025): Here’s where things get interesting. Over a span of 13 months, from 52,500 to 126,200, it increased by 140%. At first glance, the growth doesn’t seem particularly exaggerated, but the time cost is quite abnormal—exceeding the combined duration of Wave 1 and Wave 3.

**Why does Wave 5 take so long?** The secret lies in its internal sub-wave, Wave 5a (April 9, 2025, to October 6, 2025), which forms a terminal descending triangle, and this sub-wave alone lasts 6 months.

The terminal descending triangle pattern typically appears at the end of an upward or downward trend—literally, it signifies the “end.” There are several key features to remember about this pattern:

First, Wave 4a overlaps with Wave 1a, which is a core marker for identifying this pattern. Second, the trading volumes of Waves 1, 3, and 5 tend to decrease progressively. Third, although the duration is long, the price movements—up or down—are usually not very large. Fourth, once this pattern completes and reverses, it will at least return to the starting point of the pattern—that’s a strict rule.

In other words, the current position might serve as an important reference point. Understanding these wave characteristics can indeed provide some insights for predicting future movements.