【Caution: A Reallocation of USD Assets May Occur in the Second Half of 2025】

A recent research report by Nomura highlights a noteworthy policy window. After the new Federal Reserve Chair officially takes office in May next year, the market generally expects a rate cut in June. However, this may not be the whole story — as the US economy recovers, the rate cut cycle might be paused.

The issue is that this policy shift could create disagreements within the Federal Reserve. The new and outgoing chairs have different policy tendencies, coupled with the economic demands of the Trump administration, making it likely that both sides will have significant differences over the interest rate path. Market sensitivity to such policy uncertainty is high, and shaken confidence often has a greater impact than the expectations themselves.

The critical stress test period is from July to November in the second half of the year. During this time, uncertainty is expected to peak:

• Hot money may withdraw from US assets
• US Treasury yields could face downward pressure, and US stocks may also experience corrections
• The US dollar index might weaken

Once dollar liquidity reverses, the global economic landscape will change dramatically. Central banks in Japan, Europe, and emerging markets may slow or even halt rate cuts, and some countries might reconsider raising interest rates. The attractiveness of USD assets in global portfolios will decline accordingly.

Policy deadlock, signals that inflation has bottomed out, and expectations of the end of the rate cut cycle — these three factors combined will likely trigger increased market volatility.

For the crypto space, this evolving process warrants close attention. When traditional financial markets enter sustained turbulence, the search for liquidity exits will become more active, exploring new directions. The performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and BNB often becomes a key window for value discovery during such macro turning points.

It is recommended to monitor macro policy developments in advance and maintain flexible portfolio structures. The market landscape in the second half of the year could be more volatile than in the first half.

*Risk Reminder: This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please fully assess your risk tolerance before making decisions.*