【Crypto World】LIT is about to go public, and market reactions are divided. The pre-market price has already reached $3.423. Based on the current circulating supply, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) is $3.423 billion. But does this mean there is still room for further growth?
The prediction market gives a less optimistic answer. On a well-known prediction platform, the current support probability that the FDV will exceed $3 billion one day after LIT’s listing is only 47%—in other words, the market believes there is more than a 50% chance that LIT will fall below this valuation after listing.
This prediction is also quite popular, with participating funds accumulating to $50.4 million. This indicates that investors are generally cautious about LIT’s listing trend, not fully optimistic about a surge nor bearish, but rather seeing significant uncertainty. Based on the pre-market price of $3.4, if the FDV truly drops below $3 billion, it means the price would have to go lower. The current market sentiment can be described as “wait-and-see.”
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HashBandit
· 14h ago
ngl, 47% odds on holding $30b fdv sounds like people are just hedging their bags tbh... back in my mining days we had way more conviction either way, not this wishy-washy middle ground energy. but also $50m on the line? that's actual skin in the game, so maybe the uncertainty is justified lol
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BridgeTrustFund
· 14h ago
What does a 47% probability mean? Just gambling, I don't know whether to get in now or wait and see.
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$3.4 before the market opens, the chance of breaking $3 on the first day of listing is pretty high.
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Investing fifty million dollars just to gamble on whether they can hold onto 3 billion; this market is truly crazy.
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Another new coin full of uncertainty; it feels safer to wait and see.
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In such a polarized market response, retail investors are the most likely to get cut; it's better to wait until the trend is clearer.
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LeverageAddict
· 14h ago
47% support rate? That's outrageous, feels like everyone is just betting on both sides of a coin haha
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Pre-market surged to 3.4 and then sold off, no need to wait for it to break 3
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Spending 50 million USD just to gamble on uncertainty, how idle can someone be
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LIT this time feels like just hype speculation, probably doomed after it lands
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Another "could go up or down" project, I'm choosing to sleep
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With the market sentiment like this, the day of listing might just be a bloodbath
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Really? 47 to 53 split like that? Feels like the prediction market doesn't even know when
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I'm curious who still dares to throw money at the 3.4 price to participate in predictions
LIT surged past $3.4 before the market opens. What does the forecast market expect for its performance after listing?
【Crypto World】LIT is about to go public, and market reactions are divided. The pre-market price has already reached $3.423. Based on the current circulating supply, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) is $3.423 billion. But does this mean there is still room for further growth?
The prediction market gives a less optimistic answer. On a well-known prediction platform, the current support probability that the FDV will exceed $3 billion one day after LIT’s listing is only 47%—in other words, the market believes there is more than a 50% chance that LIT will fall below this valuation after listing.
This prediction is also quite popular, with participating funds accumulating to $50.4 million. This indicates that investors are generally cautious about LIT’s listing trend, not fully optimistic about a surge nor bearish, but rather seeing significant uncertainty. Based on the pre-market price of $3.4, if the FDV truly drops below $3 billion, it means the price would have to go lower. The current market sentiment can be described as “wait-and-see.”