The stock market and gold both hit record highs. Is now the time to chase Bitcoin?

By the end of 2025, the financial markets present a stark contrast: gold and US stocks continue to hit new all-time highs, while Bitcoin significantly lags behind its peak.

However, astute traders are sensing opportunities from this divergence, with substantial funds flowing into exchanges, betting that Bitcoin will repeat its historical cycle pattern and initiate a new rally.

Market Divergence: Gold and Stocks Celebrate, Bitcoin Temporarily “Falls Behind”

By December 2025, the performance of traditional assets makes cryptocurrencies look comparatively weak.

• Gold Shines to New Highs: Gold prices broke through $4,400 per ounce on December 22 and reached an all-time high of $4,491 on the 23rd. This year, gold has gained nearly 68%, and its market value increase is estimated to be several times that of the entire Bitcoin market cap.
• Steady Stock Market Growth: Meanwhile, the US stock market also performed strongly. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index rose 20.8% in 2025, and the S&P 500 increased by 16.4%.
• Bitcoin’s Lag: In contrast, Bitcoin has been sluggish. As of December 29, Bitcoin’s price was about $89,321, still approximately 29.5% below its all-time high. Since the beginning of the year, its price has even declined slightly by nearly 5%, starkly contrasting with the rapid gains in assets like gold and silver.

The table below clearly shows the current price divergence of key assets:

Three-Dimensional Analysis: Why Is Bitcoin Temporarily Falling Behind?

Bitcoin’s relative weakness in this cycle results from multiple factors working together.

1. Dominance of Macro Safe-Haven Sentiment: The main drivers of gold’s rise are geopolitical tensions and a shift toward easing monetary policies, fueling global safe-haven demand. In this environment, funds prioritize gold, seen as the ultimate safe asset, over the more volatile Bitcoin.
2. Different Market Cycle Phases: Analysts point out that Bitcoin and gold do not move in sync during their rally cycles. Historical patterns show gold often leads, with Bitcoin following. Some believe that the current phase reflects gold “leading the pack.”
3. Internal Challenges in Cryptocurrency Market: 2025 has been a volatile year for crypto markets. Despite reaching a new total market cap high, over $300 billion of net outflows occurred afterward, and the overall market declined nearly 10% year-to-date. This market correction has undoubtedly dragged down Bitcoin’s performance.

Subtle Reversal Brewing: Why Are Traders Betting on Bitcoin’s Catch-Up?

Despite its lag, early signs suggest Bitcoin may be poised for a reversal, explaining why traders are starting to bet on it.

• Capital Inflows Accelerate Quietly: The most direct signal comes from on-chain data. In the past 24 hours, centralized exchanges (CEX) have netted inflows of over 2,500 BTC. Among them, the Gate platform saw a net inflow of 565.12 BTC, ranking among the top three global exchanges. Such sustained net inflows are often seen as leading indicators of investor accumulation and expectations of price appreciation.
• Technical Indicators Show Oversold Conditions: The Bitcoin/gold ratio has fallen to its lowest point since early 2024. Analysts note that its weekly relative strength index (RSI) is near a three-year low, a position historically associated with long-term bottoms, implying Bitcoin may be undervalued relative to gold.
• Lessons from Historical Cycles: The market has not forgotten Bitcoin’s past aggressive rallying ability. Looking back at the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin exploded in later cycle stages, with gains far exceeding traditional assets. Global liquidity remains ample, and the Federal Reserve’s shift to easing policies provides macroeconomic fuel for risk assets. Some institutions, like J.P. Morgan, also believe Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold after volatility adjustments and have set higher long-term target prices.

Seizing Potential Market Rotation on Gate

For traders, the current divergence market is both a challenge and an opportunity. Gate, as a leading global cryptocurrency trading platform, with a strong daily net inflow of 565.12 BTC, demonstrates its role as a key hub for active funds. It offers deep liquidity, secure asset custody, and a rich set of trading tools to prepare for potential market style shifts.

In summary, the exuberance of gold and stocks defined the main theme of 2025, but Bitcoin’s temporary silence may be a prelude to a more explosive breakout. The cyclical nature of markets, subtle fund positioning, and macroeconomic support all underpin the logic of traders betting on Bitcoin to catch up or even surpass its traditional asset highs. Market rotations never stop, and opportunities always favor those who stay alert amid divergence and are well prepared.