On-chain data shows that a major HYPE holder completed a large transaction within 1 hour: selling 100,000 HYPE for $2.5 million in cash while unlocking another 100,000. Subsequently, the funds did not exit the market but instead immediately used a 5-hour TWAP strategy to aggressively buy LIT, with 77,000 already filled. This address profited $17 million solely from HYPE airdrops. What does this rebalancing mean?

From a news perspective, this seems more like a typical capital repositioning to switch tracks rather than panic selling. However, it’s important to note that in 7 days, a new batch of unlocked tokens for HYPE will be released. Whether there will be another dump at that time is worth monitoring.

Looking at technical performance, HYPE is at a critical position on the 4-hour chart — the price is near $25.975, forming a dense trading zone. This area also coincides with the middle band of Bollinger Bands and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, creating multiple layers of technical support. The MACD lines have already crossed above zero, indicating a short-term recovery in buying momentum. However, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows divergence with the price, reflecting that whale selling has indeed exerted substantial pressure on the market.

There are two possible scenarios given the current technical setup: if the support at $25.975 holds, HYPE could rebound toward the neckline at $28. Conversely, if the price breaks below this level with increased volume, a deeper correction could ensue, with a target around $24. The key is to observe whether trading volume can effectively support a stable rebound.

In terms of trading strategy, short-term prospects for a significant rally seem limited. If you hold positions, it’s safer to defend the $25.975 level; if broken, a timely stop-loss is more prudent. For investors looking to bottom fish, it’s advisable to wait until the price drops below $24 and observe on-chain fund flows calming down before taking action — this approach reduces risk.

HYPE’s volatility from rapid popularity to current fluctuations essentially reflects the cycle of small altcoins’ hype — initial large swings, profit-taking concentrated among whales, frequent whale manipulations. Rationally approaching these fluctuations, not being scared by short-term news, and avoiding chasing highs blindly are the correct long-term strategies for participating in the crypto market.