#加密行情预测 #Crypto Market Prediction

My Bottom Observation and Gradual Deployment Strategy in a Pessimistic Market Consensus

Recently, I’ve seen many friends extremely pessimistic about the market sentiment, with some even saying “the bear market has just begun.” However, looking back at history, when most people form a highly consensus bearish outlook, the market is often brewing for a reversal. Of course, I am not blindly calling for “bottom fishing,” but believe that at this stage, more careful observation and disciplined operations are needed.

1. Cycle Position Judgment

From on-chain data, Bitcoin’s new cycle since early November is still in the early stage. A significant correction is actually a healthy market cleansing process. Although short-term volatility is intense, the macro liquidity shift expectations (such as next year’s rate cut cycle) remain unchanged, providing long-term support for crypto assets.

2. My Trading Logic

I currently adopt a “left-side gradual deployment” strategy:

· Do not bet on the bottom all at once: set staggered orders in the BTC 40k-38k range and ETH 2200-2000 range, adding positions every 5% drop, spreading the cost within the lower middle of the oscillation zone.
· Focus on selecting altcoins: during market panic, some fundamentally solid projects are misjudged (such as DeFi blue chips and modular track leaders). I will accumulate positions with small amounts, but strictly control each project’s position to not exceed 5% of total funds.
· Keep 50% stablecoins as flexible capital: to prevent being unprepared during extreme market moves. This capital can also be used to chase trends when volume breaks through key resistance levels.

3. The Most Important Signals Currently

· Bitcoin ETF fund flow: if a “sell-the-fact” decline occurs afterward, it could be a medium- to long-term opportunity.
· Fear and Greed Index below 25: historically, this is a relatively safe testing zone.
· Exchange BTC holdings changes: if there is a continuous large outflow, it may indicate institutional accumulation.

4. Risk Reminder

The largest volatility occurs at the end of a bear market. Even if bullish, proper position management is essential:

· Avoid leverage to prevent liquidation from sudden price drops
· Do not borrow to invest; only use idle funds
· Set hard stop-losses (e.g., pause and reassess if BTC drops below the previous low of 35k)

Markets are born in despair and grow in hesitation — now may not be the time to go all-in, but it’s definitely time to get motivated and carefully research projects. The market rewards those with patience, but this reward only belongs to those who survive the winter.