#美联储回购协议计划 Short-term pullback ≠ trend reversal. Understand these three signals clearly.

$BTC Just now, it surged to 90373.4 and then pulled back. Currently trading at 87981.4. As the K-line is descending, many people are starting to feel uncertain. But actually, the market's biggest fear isn't decline, but not understanding the decline.

**Technical indicators reveal the direction in the battle**

The Bollinger Bands have widened, and the MACD green histogram is expanding—this indicates increased volatility, but that's not a bad thing. Looking closely, the difference between DIF (417.7) and DEA (405.1) is narrowing, and the price has broken below the MA5 (8982.8). In the short term, there is indeed selling pressure. However, volume is crucial—during the pullback, there was no significant increase in volume. In simple terms, the main force isn't dumping, which is a positive signal.

The key support to watch is the middle Bollinger Band at 87500. As long as this level isn't effectively broken, the entire pullback remains within controllable limits. It's a normal technical adjustment, not something to over-interpret.

**On-chain movements reveal the true intentions of big players**

Recently, on-chain flows are quite interesting—large BTC continues to move from exchanges to cold wallets. What does this indicate? Big players are accumulating on dips. The BTC balance on exchanges has fallen to its lowest point this year, meaning the available chips to sell are decreasing, and the selling pressure is self-reducing. What does this configuration usually suggest? Bottom accumulation.

**News-driven volatility hides opportunities**

Tonight, the US CPI data will be released, which is a critical point. The market has already priced this in advance. If the data is below expectations, risk assets may rebound violently; if it exceeds expectations, the 87500 to 86500 range will become a strong support. Honestly, regardless of the data, volatility expansion itself is a trading opportunity.

**How to operate more clearly**

In the short term, a dip to test the 87500 support is highly probable. But considering on-chain accumulation and the position of key technical levels, I don't think the trend has turned bad. There are two scenarios: if 87500 is broken with high volume, then focus on 86000; if it stabilizes with decreasing volume around 87500, then it's time to consider adding positions on the right side.

Trading is that simple—choose the key levels, trigger at the right moments, and avoid chasing highs or selling lows. Every pullback is telling you where the next opportunity is.