It's the end of the month again, time to settle accounts. Bitcoin's performance this month has been quite steady, hovering around the middle band of the monthly Bollinger Bands, neither breaking down nor surging strongly. The real market breakout will have to wait until next month for a clear direction.

In simple terms, all current rebounds from a weekly perspective are just technical retracements within a downtrend. I expect the ultimate target to be around 77,000. From a monthly view, this is just consolidation; the middle Bollinger Band has held the bottom line, but upward momentum is clearly lacking. The next directional judgment will be made next month. On a weekly level, it has maintained a sideways pattern for 7 consecutive weeks, with last week forming a doji candlestick. This signals a clear message — the market is in a mid-rest phase within a downtrend, and after the rest, it is likely to continue downward. The weekly Vegas channel near 77,000 provides strong support, which is also my target for this correction.

Looking at key levels on the daily chart, the first ceiling is at 99,000. This price level is the confluence of the top neckline and the daily Vegas channel, representing a significant resistance. Honestly, the probability of this rebound reaching that level is very low; it’s more of a theoretical limit. The second resistance is at 94,000, which is both the high point of the entire consolidation structure and an ideal short entry zone on the weekly level. The intra-day critical level is at 91,800. The current daily pattern looks like a converging triangle, with price oscillating within an increasingly narrow range. The 91,800 level coincides with the upper boundary of the current channel and the upper Bollinger Band, so a rebound to this point will face noticeable resistance.

Based on the above analysis, the short-term strategy is as follows: look for long positions in the 87,000-87,800 range, targeting 90,000-91,000; look for short positions in the 93,000-94,000 range, with a target retracement to 90,000-89,500.