A reshuffle in the first quarter and a redefinition of interest rate policies will undoubtedly be a positive catalyst for the market. Even without this trigger, just from the K-line patterns, the start of a bull market in the second quarter is basically assured.

Take a close look at the current market: interest rates are falling, gold and silver are hitting new highs repeatedly, and Bitcoin has pulled back from its peak. Does this combination look familiar? It’s quite similar to September 2019.

What does the surge in gold and silver to new highs reflect? Simply put, it indicates market concerns about fiat currency credibility. If the economy slips into stagflation or an asset bubble bursts, a financial crisis similar to 2008 could reoccur; but if the fundamentals stabilize, this skepticism towards fiat currency will gradually be absorbed during a new round of credit expansion. Large amounts of capital will flow out of gold and silver and into alternative assets like Bitcoin. The market trend from 2019 to 2021 followed this pattern.

Based on historical cycles, this process of capital transfer and absorption will take approximately 6 months. In other words, around June 2026, we may see this shift complete.