Today I came across an interesting on-chain transaction case that I want to share with everyone.

The main character is a seasoned whale with a tag starting with 0x14ae. This guy dropped $415,000 in the prediction market all at once. At first glance, it looks like chasing hot trends, but a closer look reveals that the risk management strategy behind this move is worth analyzing.

Let's start with his main actions. Initially, he used $16,000 to short the airdrop on the 29th, but he got caught off guard and took a loss of $4,861 before exiting decisively. This initially looks like a significant loss, but then he turned around and went long on the airdrop on the 31st, currently holding a position worth $126,000. Although there is an unrealized loss of over $10,000, his layout is very clear—he remains optimistic about the market trend at the end of the month. Even more impressively, he also threw over $300,000 on the FDV prediction on the first day of Lighter token issuance, betting $263,000 that FDV would not be less than $1 billion, and the remaining part on $2 billion or more. This combination of moves looks like retail investors being caught and averaging down, but in reality, it’s large funds playing multi-dimensional hedging strategies.

From his trading dashboard, his total profit is $13,300, with the largest single profit of $5,099, indicating this is not random gambling. Among his 7 predictions, some are profitable and some are not—for example, the position betting FDV over $10 billion has an average cost of 7.8 cents, current price is 8.3 cents, with a 5.9% return; while the 31st airdrop position has an average cost of 8.8 cents, current price is 8.1 cents, with an unrealized loss of 7.44%. This is the norm in the crypto world—bet right, make money; bet wrong, lose everything. But overall, he is still profitable, indicating that strategic risk hedging is at play.