#预测市场 Wait, I just found out today that prediction markets can still be manipulated? 😳 I just read an article about AI forging public opinion, and I feel like my brain is completely confused.

It turns out that some people deliberately push up the odds of a certain candidate through large transactions, and then when the news media reports it, ordinary people think it's real public opinion, and they get led by the nose. Just like that big move by a French investor on Polymarket in 2024, although it was later proven that they just wanted to make money, the public opinion exploded at the time, with all kinds of conspiracy theories flying around 😅

The most heartbreaking part is that even if the price manipulation succeeds, the influence might not be as big as imagined. The article said that during research, even when telling voters "the election is very close," the turnout didn't increase much. This shows that market fluctuations really don't necessarily change voters' decisions. But the problem is—rumors and distrust are more damaging than real influence!

Now I’m really curious, how do prediction market platforms protect against this kind of manipulation? Seems like they need liquidity monitoring, trading transparency, and so on? Honestly, these concepts are quite complex for me, but I think if even such an important thing as an election can be secretly manipulated, how cautious should ordinary participants be?

Can any experts explain how to identify abnormal trades? It feels like this is very important for those who want to truly understand the market 😅