2026-01-01 20:50:09

#数字资产动态追踪 From the lows in November, it has rebounded all the way to the current position of 8.8w/$3k. I think this is more of a consolidation phase after a major adjustment, doing some oscillation repair, and it's not yet to say that we have entered the mid to late stage of a prolonged bear market.

Based on the current market structure, I have two main expectations for the future:

One is to continue to fluctuate, and wait until the first half of 2026 for another surge, possibly even testing the highs again. I assign a relatively high probability to this scenario, about 60 to 65%.

The other is that from here on, it will be the peak of this bull market, and then gradually enter a long-term bear market rhythm. But honestly, I think this probability is lower, around 35 to 40%.

How to see it depends on your own risk tolerance to make a judgment.

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TxFailed

· 01-01 21:19

ngl the 60/65% call on another run to ath feels like cope mixed w/ hopium, but technically speaking? you're not wrong about the bottoming narrative. learned this the hard way tho—every time i see these odds breakdowns i get flashbacks to holding through 2018. the real edge case here is nobody actually factors in what happens if macro just... pivots. just saying.

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NotSatoshi

· 01-01 21:12

Are you brave enough to go all-in with a probability of over 60%? I wouldn't dare, haha. Speaking of the term "bottoming out," I've heard it so many times my ears are getting calloused... When the real opportunity comes, who can be sure? First half of 2026? Can you wait that long, everyone? If you don't believe in probability theory, then a bear market is just a bear market, and a bull market is just a bull market—there aren't that many in-between states. It's really just gambling on the dealer's rhythm. Anyway, I've already laid back and relaxed.

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TheShibaWhisperer

· 01-01 21:07

The probability of over 60% is still to gamble on 2026 and go all in. I can follow this guy's logic. I just want to know how to confirm that this bottom is really the bottom. 88,000 is it truly a bottom or just a rebound? This is hard to say. Let's wait and see. Anyway, just keep the idle money. Let's talk about 2026 later. Who dares to go all in now?

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LayerZeroHero

· 01-01 20:52

It has proven that this rebound actually has some substance. I am optimistic about the over 60% probability of pushing higher in the first half of 2026, but on-chain data needs to be tested to confirm whether the bottom has been solidly established.

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