#数字资产动态追踪 The Federal Reserve's new dot plot is about to be unveiled, and market bullish-bearish divergence is at an all-time high—will they continue to hold steady or迎来转折?

The pace of rate cuts since the beginning of the year has slowed down. On January 2, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, just having relaxed by 25 basis points at the end of 2025 before hitting the brakes. The overall attitude can be summarized as: the economy is performing well, and there’s no urgent need to continue easing.

The December dot plot released a clear signal. The median forecast of officials indicates that there may only be one more rate cut of 25 basis points for the year, meaning the interest rate will ultimately settle around 3.4%. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to stick at 2.4%, and GDP growth will remain around 2.3%. The logic conveyed by this data is straightforward: as long as the economy doesn’t weaken significantly and prices don’t spiral out of control, there’s no need for large-scale easing.

What does Wall Street think about the future? The opinions among institutions vary widely. Top investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are generally conservative, expecting two rate cuts throughout the year (25 basis points each in March and June), ultimately bringing rates to 3.00%-3.25%. JPMorgan Chase is more cautious, expecting only one 25 basis point cut. But the divergence goes beyond that—some institutions advocate for zero rate cuts all year to maintain a hawkish stance, while extremists are even betting on a substantial 150 basis point decrease. The dovish camp hopes the new Fed Chair will push for more aggressive easing (with Powell’s term ending in May, the market is buzzing about potential successors, with Haskett, known for supporting rate cuts, being a popular candidate).

A few optimistic institutions like Moody’s are betting on three large cuts of 75 basis points, reasoning that worsening employment and political pressure will force the central bank to loosen policy. However, this expectation still remains a minority view at present. On the practical level, inflation’s stickiness has not abated, and economic resilience persists. Unless the unemployment rate surges above 4.7% and inflation quickly returns to the 2% target, the Fed is likely to continue with a "slow rate cut" conservative approach.

The key moment is approaching. The FOMC meeting on January 27-28 will release a new dot plot, and by then, all answers will surface—will dovish views prevail or will hawks continue to dominate? For investors paying attention to market trends, the outcome of this rate-setting meeting is definitely worth close watch. Buckle up, the climax of the rate cut drama is about to unfold.