#预测市场 This week's IPO rhythm has indeed been intense. After reviewing several high-profile projects, there are a few noteworthy signals based on on-chain data and funding backgrounds.

The oversubscription phenomenon of Upheaval indicates that there is indeed market demand for the Hyperliquid ecosystem supplement, but the core issue remains whether trading volume can sustain growth—this determines the token's value support. The Bonding Curve's pricing mechanism is well-designed, effectively balancing oversubscription risks.

Yield Basis, led by the founder of Curve and backed by Curve DAO's credit support, has a solid fundamental backing. The distribution mechanism in collaboration with Kraken and Legion can filter out most wash trading accounts, making it more favorable for project teams from a screening perspective. The valuation from a $50 million initial funding to an expected several hundred million USD FDV presents a premium space that is worth observing.

Limitless, as a prediction market application on Base, has trading volume data (over $270 million), but doubts about "wash volume" still exist in public opinion. The Points Program's incentive mechanism for early participants is a common approach; specific subscription thresholds and whitelist requirements have not been disclosed yet.

The Goated case is interesting—GambleFi projects inherently have cash flow support, unlike other projects that rely on fundraising to inflate valuations. The performance of CARDS on the Metaplex Genesis platform (20x returns) has raised market expectations, but participation should verify the actual user retention and revenue authenticity of the project, not just peak data.

Currently, this round of IPOs is highly concentrated, with relatively solid institutional backing, but the key is to track actual trading data and on-chain fund flows after launch—these are the critical indicators to determine whether the enthusiasm can be sustained.