#预测市场 The data from prediction markets is interesting—Gemini jumped from 30% at the beginning of the year to 86%, a reversal magnitude that’s worth noting in any market. The $14 million trading volume indicates that market participants have formed a considerable consensus, but I am more interested in the logic behind this process: is there a genuine qualitative leap in product strength, or is it a self-fulfilling collective expectation?

From a follow-the-leader perspective, these prediction markets are essentially another form of "observation experts"—participants vote with real money, and the market price reflects the collective judgment of the majority of smart people. The problem is, collective judgment often easily falls into information silos. The contrast of ChatGPT dropping from 41% to 8% also reveals something—market sentiment can flip rapidly.

My experience is that when the probability of a certain outcome exceeds 80%, you should be cautious. It’s not that Gemini isn’t strong, but the risk-reward ratio has already become unbalanced. Prediction markets and trading follow the same logic: the later you enter and the more consensus there is, the greater the hidden trap.

Finally, a piece of advice—if you want to participate in such prediction trades, instead of chasing high-probability directions, it’s better to look for underestimated black swans. The market always rewards those who retain skepticism amid collective certainty.