The Fed's move directly determines the market rhythm for the next year.

Currently, interest rates are steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The symbolic 25 basis point rate cut at the end of 2025 is considered a brake. The market's expected easing cycle has not been fully unleashed by the Fed. The December dot plot sent a cold signal: officials' median forecast shows only a 25 basis point cut throughout 2026, with rates hovering around 3.4%. Inflation expectations are anchored at 2.4%, and GDP growth remains at 2.3%—this data clearly indicates that economic resilience persists, and the need for rate cuts is far less urgent.

Wall Street's views are divided. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lean conservative, expecting two rate cuts in the year—25 basis points each in March and June—bringing the final rate to the 3.00%-3.25% range. JPMorgan Chase is more cautious, expecting only one 25 basis point cut. But extreme opinions also exist: some analysts see no rate cuts at all, while others are betting on a large 150 basis point easing. Doves are paying attention to personnel changes in May—after Powell's term ends, the popular successor Haskett, known for his "rate cut inclination," is in the spotlight, which could become a market turning point.

A few optimists, like Moody's, are betting on three consecutive rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, reasoning that soft employment data and political pressure will force the Fed's hand. However, the harsh reality is that inflation stickiness has not fully abated, and the economy shows unexpected resilience. Unless the unemployment rate suddenly jumps above 4.7% or inflation quickly returns to the 2% target, the Fed's rate cut pace is unlikely to accelerate.

The FOMC meeting on January 27-28 will reveal the new dot plot. This document will directly answer the market's most pressing question: will the doves gain the upper hand, or will the hawks continue to dominate policy space? For the crypto market, every shift in interest rate policy could trigger a chain reaction. Be prepared—this year's opening act is about to reach its climax.