By 2026, Bitcoin's market trend is being pulled in three directions simultaneously—macroeconomics, capital flows, and market sentiment—none of which are willing to let go. On the surface, it appears lively, but in reality, it's a "range-bound tug-of-war."

From a technical perspective, a spot ETF launched by a major platform has served as a stabilizing factor, at least protecting the bottom reasonably well. However, the Federal Reserve's stance remains uncertain, and large capital is on the sidelines, so the market is stuck—trying to push higher but unable to do so.

What is the most probable scenario? Bitcoin repeatedly tests the range between and @E1@ USD, with the $90,000 to $120,000 zone being the most likely area for conflict. If macroeconomic conditions turn sour and capital flows retreat, support levels around $50,000 could be tested again. Conversely, as liquidity becomes active and ETF investments continue to pour in, targets of $120,000 or even higher could be reached at any time.

The current focus isn't on "going all-in now," but on watching signals that could change the game: Is capital continuously flowing in? Are leverage positions quietly building up? Have long-term holders started to reduce their holdings?

Before these signals appear, the market is actually in a preparatory phase—it's not ready for a true breakout yet. Instead of risking everything, it's better to exercise patience.