Cryptocurrency fluctuations are like New Year firecrackers—exciting to watch, but after they explode, you're left with either red paper or black ash.

Today, I took a close look at the DOGE/USDT 4-hour chart and have to pour a cold water on everyone: this rebound from 0.11585 to 0.12651 may look lively and festive on the surface, but internally it’s just short-term false fire. Comparing it with the overall market reveals the clue—last night, Bitcoin led a sell-off, with 160,000 traders liquidated and over $200 million wiped out. DOGE also dropped 2% in response. Although it rebounded this morning along with BTC, that momentum is clearly just riding the hype, not genuine strength.

The candlestick details are even more interesting. Currently, DOGE is stuck above the middle Bollinger Band, which sounds like the bulls are temporarily in control, but in reality, it’s a warning sign of an impending stall. Look at the RSI soaring to 74, and the J value of KDJ breaking 100—these two indicators are like they’ve had too much fake alcohol, shooting straight into the sky. Anyone who has traded before knows that when overbought reaches this level, it means the scythe is sharpening. In mid-December last year, DOGE also saw the J value break 100, and the next day, it plummeted from 0.14 to 0.12. Many retail traders chasing the high got caught, and some are still cursing in their social circles.

MACD isn’t saying much better. Although the red bars are still red, the DIF is approaching the zero line—like running too fast in the first half of a marathon and then losing strength in the second half. It still looks like it’s moving forward on the surface, but a collapse could happen at any time. Without additional capital inflows in the short term, this rebound will be hard to sustain.