#数字资产动态追踪 The first major exam of 2026 is coming. The Federal Reserve's dot plot will be officially released in January—will this time break the market's obsession with rate cuts?

Just after New Year's Day, the Fed has already made its stance clear. The current interest rate is anchored in the 3.50%-3.75% range. After a symbolic 25 basis point cut at the end of last year, monetary policy immediately paused. With the economy performing so strongly (GDP growth at 2.3%, unemployment still low), rushing to loosen liquidity seems more like inviting trouble.

The December dot plot has already been signaling. It appears there may only be one 25 basis point rate cut opportunity throughout the year, and inflation remains stubbornly sticky, stuck at around 2.4%. These data are not very friendly to the dovish camp.

Wall Street institutions have already taken sides. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have relatively moderate expectations, betting on two 25 basis point rate cuts in March and June; JPMorgan is more cautious, even betting on only one rate cut; extreme views are quite divided—some insist on a hardline stance of zero rate cuts in 2026, while others optimistically call for a 150 basis point cut, with both sides holding firm.

Currently, a key variable is influencing market expectations. Powell's term will end in May. If dovish representative Haskett takes over, the entire story could reverse completely. Such a leadership change often triggers chain reactions in the interest rate markets.

The dot plot essentially serves as a preview of the Fed's liquidity tone for the year. The stock market, crypto assets, and credit markets are all waiting for this answer. If the median of the data remains flat or even rises, it indicates that the hawks still hold dominance; but if there is an unexpectedly large downward revision, a dovish rally could ignite instantly.

The overall logic is clear: the stickiness of inflation combined with economic resilience gives the Fed the confidence not to loosen liquidity easily. Unless unemployment suddenly spikes or inflation drops significantly, a slow and cautious rate cut pace will likely persist throughout the year.

For traders, it's best not to heavily position before the dot plot is released. Wait for the data and then adjust strategies based on market reactions. In a year of liquidity turning points, those with expectations gaps will find real opportunities.