At the start of the new year, the Federal Reserve has presented the market with a tough puzzle. The interest rate is anchored at 3.50%-3.75%. Last year, they only symbolically cut 25 basis points at the end of the year and hit the brakes, making it very clear—given the economy's robustness, there's no rush to cut rates.

Based on the December dot plot signals, it seems likely that this year will see only a 25 basis point cut. Inflation data remains sticky at around 2.4%, while GDP growth has surged to 2.3%. This set of data clearly leaves no room for dovish expectations.

Wall Street's big players each have their own plans. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase lean toward cutting 25 basis points in March and June, representing a centrist view. JPMorgan Chase is more conservative, even betting on only one rate cut. But there are also more aggressive voices—extremists are arguing, with some calling for zero cuts this year, and others wildly speculating about a 150 basis point cut. Opinions are sharply divided.

A key variable that cannot be ignored is that Powell's term ends in May. If the successor is a dovish figure like Haskett, the entire script could be completely rewritten. This uncertainty alone will increase market volatility.

The January FOMC meeting is about to release a new dot plot. This is not only a weather vane for the interest rate trajectory but also directly influences the liquidity tone for the entire year. The stock market, crypto space, lending markets—almost all asset classes are waiting for this signal.

In simple terms, with inflation being sticky and the economy resilient, the Fed is unlikely to ease easily now. Unless unemployment suddenly spikes or inflation sharply drops, "slow rate cuts" will be the main theme this year. Keep a close eye on the median of the dot plot—if it stays flat or is raised, it indicates hawkish policymakers are still in control; if it is lowered beyond expectations, a dovish rally could ignite instantly.

In terms of strategy, don’t rush to go all-in. Wait until the dot plot is released before making moves. A year of liquidity turning points often hides the best opportunities within the expectations gap.