#Ripple筹划规模达10亿美元的XRP资金池 Is the US economic policy undergoing a major reversal? Easing tariffs and trillion-dollar tax refunds, the crypto market will face new changes in 2026

By 2026, the US economic policy has subtly shifted. Faced with high inflation and public dissatisfaction, the government has adjusted its tariff strategy—from a previously tough stance to a more flexible negotiation approach. The latest data from the Treasury Department indicates that plans to increase tariffs on certain furniture and cabinets have been postponed, sending an important signal.

The true face of tariffs: from barriers to bargaining chips

Wall Street analysis is straightforward: tariffs are evolving from "economic barriers" into "negotiation tools." Policymakers seem to be trying a new logic—initially applying high tariffs to create pressure, then lowering them to ease market concerns. Behind this maneuver, it reflects the real inflationary pressures. Several analysts point out that the effectiveness of tariffs is gradually weakening, and the credibility of policies is being tested.

Tax refund wave is coming: over 100 million Americans will receive money

More attention is drawn to actions on the tax front. Last year's "Inflation Reduction Act" included tax cuts that followed the principle of retroactivity, causing many taxpayers' withholding taxes to not be adjusted in time. As a result, in the 2026 tax season, over 100 million Americans are expected to receive tax refund checks, with an average amount possibly reaching $3,278. JPMorgan Chase issued a rather direct warning—this round of refunds is close to the stimulus measures during the pandemic, which will inevitably boost consumption and prices. The Congressional Budget Office estimates more specifically: this could contribute 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026.

Market expectations and risks go hand in hand

Optimistic voices have raised the US GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 3.0%-3.5%. Some institutions even assign a 60% probability to the "Roaring 2020s." But both ceiling and floor exist—debt crisis could trigger a surge in Treasury yields, geopolitical shocks could disrupt all calculations, and the massive liquidity injection is likely to push inflation higher again, creating extreme constraints on the Federal Reserve's policy space.

Easing tariffs + trillion-dollar tax refunds, is this combination a stimulus or risk accumulation? As a key indicator of global liquidity, the crypto market will inevitably fluctuate accordingly. Every shift in macro policy could rewrite the market landscape. What are your thoughts on this economic experiment in 2026?