Ethereum, Solana, and other popular coins have recently regained popularity, and a thrilling story has been circulating in many circles.

There is a fan called "Xiaoye" who, from an account with a loss of 100,000 U and only a few tens of thousands U remaining, managed to turn the account around to 570,000 U within a month through two trades. This turnaround story sounds truly inspiring—who wouldn't want to follow the trend and try?

But have you ever thought about whether there's more to this story behind the scenes?

**Here's how the story is told**

First trade: BEAT rose from 1.03 to 2.2 and was sold, earning 50,000 yuan. The increase was about 114%, which sounds reasonable.

Second trade: Ethereum went long from 2740 to 3400 and was sold, earning 460,000 yuan. Although the increase was only 24%, the large base made the profit impressive.

The conclusion is clear: following the "strategy" to copy trades can lead to a quick turnaround.

**Wait, don't rush to follow just yet**

This story actually hides several critical issues.

First, **survivor bias**—we only see Xiaoye's successful trajectory. Was the same "strategy" recommended to others? Did those people also make money? Did anyone follow the same advice and end up liquidated or deeply trapped? We will never hear the stories of those "silent losers," just like we can't see meteors in the darkness.

Second, **market timing cannot be replicated at all**. These two trades seem so precise because they coincidentally hit the short-term surge of specific coins. How much luck does that require? How perfect does the market prediction need to be? Frankly, this is more like a "lottery win" than a replicable system.

The 114% increase in BEAT and the recent surge in Ethereum are not everyday occurrences. Even if it's the same person, can they be this accurate next time? The probability is very clear—what are the chances you'll encounter such market conditions again?

**The truth behind the data**

Going from a 100,000 U loss to a 570,000 U turnaround is indeed tempting. But let's do the math: the 50,000 profit from the first trade was based on high-risk operations on a remaining few tens of thousands U; the 460,000 profit from the second trade, although only a 24% increase, required enough capital to take that position. In other words, a misjudgment could wipe out these gains instantly.

The crypto market is like this—everyone wants to hear stories of making money, but no one talks about losing money. What you hear are always the achievements of those who survived.

**The harsh reality**

No "strategy" can guarantee profits every time. Market timing, risk management, psychological resilience, and luck are all indispensable. Xiaoye's story did happen, but what's the probability that the next successful person is you? Can you handle losing tens of thousands U in a failed trade?

Chasing stories of quick turnaround is often more dangerous than the stories themselves. Instead of dreaming of turning things around in a month, it's better to understand the risks, learn to cut losses, and control your position sizes. This isn't a romantic suggestion, but a survival strategy.