2026-01-03 10:30:32

#数字资产动态追踪 The calm before the storm—BTC 1-hour triangle convergence, whales quietly positioning

Soros's words always resonate: "How much you make and how much you lose, that's what really matters." Looking at this chart, I feel the suppressed atmosphere before a breakout.

**Technical Indicators**

The Bollinger Bands are squeezed tightly—only 1100 points between the upper and lower bands, with the price repeatedly oscillating around the middle band. Such extreme narrowing is always a sign of an impending major move.

What about MACD? The two lines are close together, and the histogram has shrunk to 215.5, indicating both bulls and bears are gathering strength. The key point: once a bullish crossover occurs on the 1-hour chart with increased volume, the 90500 resistance level will be tested directly—no room for negotiation.

Trading volume has suddenly dropped to 686, hitting a weekly low—retail traders are in hibernation, which often signals a trend reversal. The 5-day average volume was 3245, and the current quietness speaks volumes.

**On-Chain Data Speaking**

In the past 24 hours, 32,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges, a new high this month. Glassnode alerts are coming one after another; exchange balances have fallen to their lowest point of the year. Smart money (addresses holding over 1k BTC) has increased holdings by 1.8% this week, with dense order accumulation in the 89000-89600 range—what are they doing? It’s clear.

**Macro Drivers**

The Federal Reserve will hold its first decision meeting of 2026 this Thursday. CME Bitcoin futures open interest has surged 17%, indicating the market has priced in a "dovish expectation." Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s digital asset custody license has just been granted, opening up more channels for Asian institutions.

**My Judgment**

Breakout is imminent, and the direction is definitely upward. The triangle convergence ending + on-chain capital accumulation + macro positive signals are resonating—these three forces working together suggest that within the next 24 hours, we should test 90500 (Bollinger upper band). Once stabilized, look toward 92000-92500.

If a pullback occurs, 89200-89400 (where the Bollinger lower band and previous lows coincide) is an excellent entry point for longs.

**Trading Suggestions**

Aggressive traders can try a small long near 89800, with a stop-loss at 89200. Conservative traders should wait for a volume breakout above 90500 before chasing the move—don’t be fooled by false breakouts.

The market rewards those who can see signals early. There are no "maybes" or "perhaps" here—only signals and actions.

BTC-0,12%

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VitalikFanboy42

· 01-06 00:42

Is the triangle convergence just a precursor? The whale's accumulation posture is too obvious. This wave will confidently take down 90,500.

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AirdropHermit

· 01-05 06:34

The whales are secretly accumulating again, retail investors are still asleep, this rhythm is really intense. Is a breakout really coming? It feels like we're waiting for an explosion every day. Trying a small position at 89,800, since it's just spare change, just worried it might be a false breakout again. If this wave can break above 90,500, 92k is not a dream. On-chain data doesn't lie, but I'm afraid my stop-loss will be swept.

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GateUser-a180694b

· 01-03 11:00

Bollinger Bands are so tight, it really feels like something's about to move... but every time I say that, what happens? --- Is it reliable that whales are accumulating, or is it just another trick? --- Trying a small position at 89,800, anyway I don’t have much idle cash, just treat it as a gamble. --- On-chain data is so obvious, how are retail investors still sleeping so soundly... --- Breaking 90,500 sounds simple, but false breakouts are the norm, right? --- This market is really oppressive, can’t wait any longer, starting to build a position. --- Soros’ words do have some truth, but applying them to the crypto world requires a bit of luck.

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MentalWealthHarvester

· 01-03 10:58

Whales are accumulating, retail investors are sleeping, this market is quite interesting --- I've heard the triangle convergence explanation a hundred times, but the key is whether the trading volume can keep up --- Buying long at 89,800 sounds great, but I'm just worried it might be a false breakout followed by a dump --- Testing 90,500 in 24 hours? I doubt it, the macro environment is too complex --- On-chain data is indeed speaking, but smart money's buy orders might also be the last dip before bottoming out --- Soros's words really make sense; now I'm thinking about how much loss it takes to turn things around --- The Fed meeting on Thursday has been hyped up too much; we should also be cautious of a sell-off after good news lands --- Tight Bollinger Bands aren't necessarily a good sign; sometimes it's just brewing for a downward move --- 90,200-92,500? Let's first see if we can break through 90,500 --- I believe the signal of record low trading volume; historically, it often leads to a trend reversal, but the direction isn't certain --- Aggressive light positions for trying longs are okay, but conservative traders should really wait—don't chase the high

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ForkMonger

· 01-03 10:52

nah bro, this triangulation narrative is just governance theater. they're always "accumulating" before the move but what actually matters is who controls the protocol economics. whales stacking sats means nothing if the fork risk isn't priced in properly.

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LayerZeroHero

· 01-03 10:36

The Bollinger Bands are so tight, I feel like I can't hold it anymore... Enter a little at 89,800 to test the waters, or wait until the 90,500 break to decide.

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VitalikFanAccount

· 01-03 10:35

Wow, the whales are lurking again, retail investors are asleep and just in time to be harvested. The Bollinger Bands are squeezed so tightly, it will explode sooner or later, just see if it’s upward or downward. On-chain data never lies, a withdrawal of 32,000 BTC... smart money is really quietly positioning. Trying a small position at 89,800, with good psychological preparation and stop-loss, or else you won’t sleep at night if it’s a loss. It’s been so long since 90,500, can it really break this time, or is it just another fake breakout show? Soros was right, only those who survive till the end and walk away intact are the winners. This market indeed has that kind of eerie silence. A failed breakout drops to 89,200, oh my, then we’ll have to see how those analysts spin the story again.

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