Looking at the performance of traditional assets over the past two years, many people are beginning to reassess the significance of cryptocurrencies as an asset allocation. Weak A-shares, volatile US stocks, and unpredictable gold trends—under these circumstances, an increasing number of investors are turning their attention to digital assets.

As a market participant, I want to discuss an interesting phenomenon from the perspective of historical data: Bitcoin's bull and bear cycles are almost as precise as a clock.

A quick review of BTC's historical records reveals a pattern. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced three complete bull and bear transition cycles. Specifically—reaching a high point in November 2013, followed by a 410-day bear market that continued until late January 2015; hitting a historical high in December 2017, then a 363-day bear market that ended in December 2018; and most recently, starting from the top in October 2021, touching the bottom 377 days later in November 2022.

Interestingly, the lengths of these three bear cycles are astonishingly close—deviations are within one month. This is no coincidence; it reflects the long-term effects of market supply and demand, capital cycles, and technological development factors.

Following this line of reasoning forward, the current cycle's situation becomes somewhat clearer. According to the four-year cycle law, 2025 should be the last year of this bull market. From a macro perspective, the global economy is likely to enter a recovery cycle, with central banks gradually shifting from tightening monetary policies to neutral, which typically provides the final upward momentum for risk assets. The top of the bull market often coincides with liquidity...