New Year begins with U.S. Treasury yields slightly rising, but volatility remains modest. With a series of major economic data releases scheduled for next week, market sentiment is starting to stir.

The key focus points are on Wednesday and Friday. On Wednesday, the ADP employment report will be released, and on Friday, the main event—the non-farm payrolls report—will be published according to the usual schedule. This will be the first such release since September last year. Crypto market investors have always been sensitive to macroeconomic data, as changes in the unemployment rate directly influence Federal Reserve policy directions and subsequently affect overall asset allocation.

Institutions have differing forecasts. Raymond James is relatively optimistic, expecting the unemployment rate to decline from 4.6% to 4.5%. However, Citigroup remains cautious, believing the unemployment rate could rise to 4.7%. The divergence in these expectations precisely reflects the current uncertainty in economic trends.

The recent performance of ETH and other cryptocurrencies, to some extent, is also digesting these differing expectations. Next week’s data will send a clear signal to the market—whether the economy is improving or showing signs of slowdown—this will influence large-scale capital allocation strategies.