What is hidden behind this data is worth a good discussion.

Let's first look at the growth rate of US public debt—since 1994, it has reached $38.5 trillion, increasing more than 8 times over 30+ years. This is not even the most frightening part. After 2020, the curve has almost become a vertical line: pandemic stimulus and ongoing deficits have led to annual new debt often exceeding $2 trillion to $3 trillion. In just two months into the 2026 fiscal year, the deficit has already surpassed $400 billion, and the annual interest expenditure is expected to break the $1 trillion mark for the first time.

Why is interest growth so fierce? Simply put, the debt scale is too large. With $38.5 trillion in debt, even at an interest rate of around 4%, the interest costs grow like a snowball. The US now pays more in interest each year than its defense budget, homeland security budget, and even approaches social security expenditures. In other words—more and more of American taxpayers' money is used to pay off debt rather than investing in future technology, infrastructure, or R&D.

This reflects a fundamental problem: the US fiscal system is caught in a "borrow to repay old debt" vicious cycle. Tax revenue simply cannot cover the expenditure gap and can only rely on continuous borrowing. The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency gives the US a special advantage—global investors are willing to buy US bonds, allowing the US to finance at relatively low costs. But this game has its limits. Once global investor confidence wavers, yields will skyrocket, and a crisis will arrive.

What does this trend mean for traditional stock markets, bond markets, and even crypto markets? It will increase the pressure on dollar depreciation, raise uncertainty in interest rate policies, and intensify volatility in risk assets. As an inflation hedge, crypto assets may actually become more attractive during this cycle.