The market app just popped up, and ETH is oscillating around 3120. Are you starting to feel nervous? The discussion group is noisy—some are shouting "Market is starting, don't miss out," others are warning "Be cautious, there's a high risk of decline." Should you enter now or wait? The more you think about it, the more confused you become, almost ready to press the buy or sell button.

Having analyzed the market for 8 years, I’ve seen this kind of situation replayed time and again. To put it plainly, at this stage, ETH’s winning or losing move isn’t really about technical analysis, but about the psychological mindset of participants. Those who can stick to discipline ultimately profit, while those driven by emotions end up paying tuition.

Here’s a hard truth: the current level at 3120 is not an ideal entry point at all. The big bullish candle from 3000 straight up to 3149 the day before yesterday is worth examining. The purpose of a rapid upward push is usually to trigger two reactions—damage the short-sellers’ positions and create a sense of urgency among those who missed out, making them think "If I don’t act now, I’ll never catch the train." The current market consolidation is precisely reinforcing this anxiety, waiting for you to take action.

How to distinguish a true breakout from a false trap? From long-term observation, I’ve distilled two key indicators, which are quite accurate. The first is the critical support at 3100. Don’t underestimate this round number; it’s not just a psychological barrier but also represents the main cost zone for large funds. The last rally from 3000 to 3149 was mainly built on positions accumulated in the 3000-3100 range. If a new upward wave is to be launched, this 3100 line must not be broken—if it falls, retail investors will panic collectively, and large funds won’t be able to unload their chips. So, 3100 is a litmus test.