Eating dinner while casually opening the community chat, the entire atmosphere is chillingly cold.

I still remember when ETH just broke above 3149 yesterday, the group was incredibly lively—various share posts, calculations everywhere, as if a luxury car was about to change hands in the next second. Now the price has returned to around 3100, and private messages keep coming in: "Is this bull market about to end?"

This is a common problem among most retail investors. They think a 150-dollar increase is too little, and a 50-dollar drop makes them want to run away. Their mentality is as fragile as paper.

Let's analyze how the market maker prepared this dinner.

**Temptation Stage**

The rise to 3149 didn't happen randomly. It was a signal sent to the entire market—a stimulant that created an expectation of "continued rise" among all participants.

**Blow Stage**

Today's market movement was interesting throughout the day. From 3149, it steadily declined to the current 3097. On the 15-minute chart, there was no significant rebound; it was all a steady, gradual decline. This kind of movement is the most exhausting—it doesn't give you a satisfying drop, but feels like being cut with a dull knife. The goal is very clear: to crush the mentality of those who chased the high yesterday and this morning, forcing them to cut losses before the opening.

**Pattern Confirmation**

The 1-hour MACD has already crossed downward, with the red bars still lengthening. This indicates that the short-term bears have taken control. The 3100 level now looks very dangerous.

**How to respond tonight**

It all depends on two lines. The defensive line is at 3080—this is the last support. If the market can hold above this before the US stock market opens, there’s still a chance for a reversal. The breakout line is whether it can regain above 3120. These two lines are tonight’s life and death line.