This week's crypto market face changes really happen fast. BTC plummeted in the deep night and then quickly rebounded to $88,000. The Fear and Greed Index rebounded by 7 points in a single week, immediately splitting the community into two factions: the bulls shouting "bottomed out, new cycle begins," and the bears turning around to warn "rebounds are traps, beware of false breakouts."

Having been in the crypto space for 8 years, I fear these moments the most—so many people rushing to find certainty, yet ignoring the real gameplay behind it. It's still a bit early to talk about a turning point, but the logic of this tug-of-war between bulls and bears is what truly determines whether you can make money.

First, let's see what the bulls are saying. The most popular argument recently circulating is "liquidity has bottomed out, the central banks are about to loosen policy." The person making this claim has some influence, and the logic sounds smooth: global central banks are about to ease policies, crypto markets are most sensitive to liquidity, so they will likely take off first. Additionally, some expect relevant policy bills from major countries to be implemented, giving the industry a reassurance. If these policies are actually introduced, policy anxiety could ease temporarily, and market sentiment might pick up.

But I have to be honest—these arguments look plausible but are full of holes upon closer inspection.

The claim that liquidity has bottomed out is actually hard to defend. The US inflation data is still in adjustment, and tariffs and related policies are still changing. Will the central banks really loosen so quickly? Even if they do loosen, funds will prioritize traditional financial markets like US stocks and bonds first, and crypto will have to wait in line. That waiting period could be much longer than you think.