2026-01-03 15:20:26

The endgame of Bitcoin is now in front of us. According to the code, the last Bitcoin is most likely to be mined around 2140. By then, miners' days will be tough—block rewards will have completely disappeared, and their income will rely solely on transaction fees.

It sounds a bit hopeless. Currently, fees only make up a small part of miners' income. In 2025, the average fee per block is only 0.025 BTC, and in the future, it will need to increase several times to cover mining costs. From a mathematical perspective, Bitcoin's total supply approaches 21 million through the geometric decay of 50 + 25 + 12.5 + …, but it will never reach that "last drop of water." Satoshi Nakamoto's design perfectly illustrates the concept of deflationary idealism, at the cost that miners' rewards will eventually approach zero.

But there is a turning point. The key is whether the fee market can truly mature. Pessimists say that if Bitcoin ultimately becomes just a store of value or digital gold, on-chain transaction demand will be insufficient. Optimists paint a different picture—Bitcoin evolving into a global settlement layer. Imagine large transactions (like enterprise cross-border transfers) willing to pay higher fees for security, while everyday small payments are handled by Layer2 solutions. Based on Visa's transaction volume, charging $0.1 per transaction could create a $1 billion market annually.

There are also new stories waiting to be told. New applications within the Bitcoin ecosystem—DeFi protocols, staking mechanisms—could create new demand for block space. The identity of miners might also change completely, upgrading from pure "hash power sellers" to "decentralized cloud service providers," expanding revenue streams through multi-chain mining, data services, and more.

Ultimately, the user experience of Bitcoin after 2140 will diversify. Large-scale settlements on the main chain will indeed incur higher costs, but ordinary users' daily payments have Layer2 as a fallback. How the ecosystem evolves depends on how we build it now.

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DegenApeSurfer

· 01-06 06:26

Year 2140? Bro, I'm gone long ago, no need to worry about whether the miners are alive or dead... But on the other hand, Layer2 really needs to be pushed to the max, or else the mainnet fees will skyrocket.

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LidoStakeAddict

· 01-05 21:31

What’s the point of worrying about 2140 now... It’s too far away, buddy. Let’s focus on improving the current blockchain ecosystem first. As for the maturity of the fee market, honestly, it still depends on whether trading volume is strong enough; otherwise, it’s just self-deception. Layer2 is indeed quite attractive, but can it truly replace mainnet for large-scale settlements? That’s a question mark. Mining transitioning to cloud service providers—whether this shift can succeed depends on how the ecosystem develops. Multi-chain mining needs to be practically implemented to count. Anyway, I’m optimistic about the fee direction. Bitcoin as digital gold is a waste; it really should be put to use. 2140... We’ll worry about that day when it comes. For now, we need to think about how to revive the ecosystem. Can DeFi and staking open new opportunities for miners? That’s the key.

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rugdoc.eth

· 01-05 11:51

2140? Bro, I’ll be dead by then and still worried about this stuff. --- For the fee market to truly mature, Bitcoin will finally be alive and well. --- The layer2 savior theory is back again. I’ve heard this argument for almost ten years. --- Honestly, miners will ultimately have to rely on ecological innovation to survive. Pure mining will end sooner or later. --- The problem is, who’s willing to pay such high fees for Bitcoin settlement now? Easy to say. --- Selling hash power as a cloud service sounds impressive, but what’s the reality? --- Satoshi’s deflationary design is brilliant. The trouble for future miners is directly dumped on those in 2140. --- Stop with all these stories. The key is whether on-chain demand can pick up. --- That layer2 backup plan sounds good, but I’m afraid it might never be used at all.

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SnapshotStriker

· 01-03 15:46

Is it too early to worry about the problems in 2140? Let's first focus on developing the fee market in 2025. --- Honestly, whether miners can keep eating depends entirely on whether on-chain transaction volume can increase. No matter how attractive Layer2 is, it can't change the status of the mainnet. --- If Bitcoin truly becomes "digital gold," then it's the end of the line. Without transactions, there are no fees. Without fees, who would even mine? --- That benchmark for Visa is a bit overly optimistic... If it really reaches a $10 billion market, miners wouldn't have to worry so much. --- It sounds pretty hopeless, but DeFi and staking do have some room for imagination. It all depends on whether the ecosystem can support it. --- 2140 is so far away; who knows what mining will look like then? Maybe they'll have already come up with new tricks. --- The key is transactions. Without transactions, everything is pointless. That's not wrong to say.

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GateUser-26d7f434

· 01-03 15:37

It's still a long way to 2140. Why worry about whether miners are alive or dead now? The market for transaction fees will probably take at least a few decades to truly mature. Bitcoin as digital gold is pretty good already. Forcing it into the role of a global settlement layer just sounds exhausting. Layer 2 can help in a pinch, but it ultimately diverts traffic. The main chain will indeed be neglected... That logic is a bit tangled. Talking about decentralized cloud service providers sounds impressive, but in reality? Miners still rely on mining to make a living. Comparing it to Visa is meaningless; BTC isn't a payment tool. People hold it mainly for its appreciation potential.

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AirdropHunterZhang

· 01-03 15:29

2140? Buddy, I'm still figuring out how to break even now, and you're talking to me about things a hundred years from now... But on the other hand, transaction fees are indeed a trap. Now that electricity costs are almost zero, are we still expecting the future to support it? Unless Bitcoin truly becomes the global settlement layer, the days of Layer2 taking the lion's share while the mainnet drinks the soup are not far off. Upgrading miner status? Sounds great, but in reality... it still depends on who can quietly get rich.

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ApeEscapeArtist

· 01-03 15:29

2140? Man, I've already died a few times by then. Why bother worrying about this now... But on the other hand, the Layer2 logic is indeed interesting. Small payments really don't need to go on the mainnet to avoid congestion.

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