Short-term outlook for Venezuela's oil production is pointing downward rather than up. The real squeeze comes from a critical shortage of naphtha—that's the key diluent needed to thin out their heavy crude and get it moving through pipelines. The catch? Moscow's been the main supplier, and that's dried up. Without this flow, shipping volumes could tighten further, impacting global energy prices and creating broader macro headwinds. Worth watching if you're thinking about how energy volatility factors into asset allocation.