The impact of the debt crisis on the crypto market goes far beyond price fluctuations; capital flow is the real key. On-chain data such as stablecoin supply, exchange balances, and order book depth can intuitively reflect the true movement of funds in the market, and they do so faster and more accurately than any macro news.

Speaking of stablecoins, these are essentially the "M2" of the crypto world. As of November 2025, the total supply of ERC-20 stablecoins has surged to a record high of $185 billion, with $65 billion of stablecoins sitting on exchanges. This is the market's "dry powder"—potential capital ready to enter.

Why is this number important? Because it has two implications. First, as a safe haven: when traditional finance faces risks (such as the U.S. government shutdown in October 2025), investors tend to park their funds in stablecoins to avoid volatility. During that period, USDT's market cap increased by 5% in a single month. Second, as a rebound signal: these stockpiled stablecoins are like a weapons cache filled with ammunition—once market sentiment improves, they can flood into the market immediately. According to CryptoQuant statistics, for every additional $10 billion in exchange stablecoin balances, the probability that Bitcoin will rise in the next 30 days increases by 40%.

Therefore, if you want to catch the bottom, you shouldn't do it halfway up the mountain; you need to keep a close eye on stablecoin movements. Regularly check Tether's issuance announcements and on-chain data on DeFiLlama, especially the ratio of stablecoin to Bitcoin market cap—this ratio can reflect how sufficient the market's purchasing power reserves truly are.