#2026行情预测 Has Bitcoin Become "Stable"? Its 2025 Volatility Is Actually Less Than Nvidia's

By the end of 2025, Bitcoin's actual daily volatility dropped to 2.24%, marking the lowest annual figure on record for this asset. K33 Research's volatility chart dates back to 2012—when Bitcoin's daily volatility was 7.58%. Data shows that in each cycle, Bitcoin's volatility has been steadily decreasing: 3.34% in 2022, 2.80% in 2024, and down to 2.24% in 2025. However, market perception differs from the data. In October 2025, Bitcoin's price fell from $126,000 to $80,500, a nerve-wracking process; on October 10, a liquidation wave triggered by tariff policies wiped out $19 billion of leveraged long positions in a single day. The contradiction is: measured by traditional standards, Bitcoin's volatility has indeed declined, but compared to previous cycles, it attracted larger capital inflows, and its absolute price swings are higher. Low volatility does not mean "market in silence," but indicates that the market has matured enough to absorb institutional-level capital flows and no longer exhibits the "chain reaction" feedback loops seen in early cycles.
Today, ETFs, corporate treasuries, and regulated custodians have become the "ballast" of market liquidity, while long-term holders continue reallocating assets into this infrastructure.
The ultimate result is: Bitcoin's daily returns are becoming more stable, but its market cap volatility still reaches hundreds of billions of dollars—enough in 2018 or 2021 to trigger an 80% crash.

Volatility Continues to Decline
K33's annual volatility data records this transformation. In 2013, Bitcoin's average daily return was 7.58%, reflecting a market with thin order books and speculative frenzy. By 2017, this figure dropped to 4.81%; in 2020, it was 3.98%; during the 2021 pandemic bull run, it slightly rebounded to 4.13%. In 2022, collapses of Luna, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX pushed volatility up to 3.34%. Since then, volatility has been on a downward trend: 2.94% in 2023, 2.80% in 2024, and down to 2.24% in 2025. Log-scale price charts further confirm this trend. From 2022 to 2025, Bitcoin did not experience extreme "sharp rise followed by sharp fall" scenarios but steadily moved higher within an upward channel. Although there were corrections—price fell below $50,000 in August 2024 and down to $80,500 in October 2025—they did not lead to "parabolic surges followed by systemic crashes."
Analysis indicates that the approximately 36% decline in October 2025 remains within the normal retracement range of Bitcoin's history.
The difference is: in the past, 36% corrections often occurred at high volatility levels of around 7%, but this time, it happened at a low volatility level of 2.2%. This creates a "perception gap": a 36% drop in six weeks still feels intense; but compared to early cycles (where daily 10% swings were normal), the 2025 market movements are relatively mild. Asset management firm Bitwise points out that Bitcoin's actual volatility has fallen below Nvidia's, redefining Bitcoin from a "pure speculative tool" to a "high beta macro asset."

Market Cap Growth, Institutional Entry, and Asset Reallocation
K33's core view is that the decline in actual volatility is not due to reduced capital inflows, but because now a larger capital scale is needed to move prices. The firm's "Bitcoin Market Cap Three-Month Change Chart" shows that even during low-volatility periods, market cap can fluctuate by hundreds of billions of dollars. During the drawdowns from October to November 2025, Bitcoin's market cap evaporated about $570 billion, nearly matching the $568 billion retracement in July 2021.
The magnitude of price swings has not changed; what has changed is the market's "depth" in absorbing these swings. Three structural factors have driven the decline in volatility:
First is the "accumulation" effect of ETFs and institutions.
K33 statistics show that in 2025, ETFs net bought about 160,000 Bitcoin (though less than the over 630,000 in 2024, the scale remains significant). ETFs and corporate treasuries together increased holdings by about 650,000 Bitcoin, accounting for over 3% of circulating supply. These funds enter the market through "programmatic rebalancing," not driven by retail FOMO. K33 specifically notes that even if Bitcoin prices drop about 30%, ETF holdings decline by only single-digit percentages, with no panic redemptions or forced liquidations.
Second is corporate treasuries and structured issuance. By the end of 2025, corporate treasuries held about 473,000 Bitcoin (slowing down in the second half). New demand mainly comes from preferred stocks and convertible bonds, not direct cash purchases—since finance teams follow quarterly capital structure strategies, unlike traders chasing short-term market trends.
Third is asset redistribution from early holders to a broader group. K33's "Asset Holding Duration Analysis" shows that since early 2023, dormant Bitcoin held for over two years has begun to "activate" steadily. Over the past two years, about 1.6 million long-term held Bitcoin have entered circulation. 2024 and 2025 are the two largest years for "sleeping assets" activation. The report mentions that in July 2025, Galaxy Digital sold 80,000 Bitcoin, and Fidelity sold 20,400 Bitcoin. These sales align with the "structural demand" from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and regulated custodians—who gradually build positions over months. This redistribution is crucial: early holders accumulated Bitcoin at $100 to $10,000, with assets concentrated in a few wallets; when they sell, assets flow to ETF shareholders, corporate balance sheets, and high-net-worth clients making small diversified purchases.
The final result is: Bitcoin holdings become less concentrated, order book depth increases, and the "chain reaction" feedback loop weakens. In early cycles, selling 10,000 Bitcoin in a thin market could cause a 5-10% price drop, triggering stop-losses and forced liquidations; but in 2025, such sales attract buy orders from multiple institutional channels, even pushing prices up 2-3%, weakening feedback loops and reducing daily volatility. Portfolio construction, leverage impacts, and the end of "parabolic cycles" have effectively lowered actual volatility, changing how institutions assess "Bitcoin holding size."
Modern portfolio theory suggests that asset allocation weights should be based on "risk contribution" rather than "return potential." For the same 4% Bitcoin allocation: if daily volatility is 7%, its contribution to portfolio risk is much higher than at 2.2%. This mathematical fact forces asset allocators to choose: either increase Bitcoin holdings or use options and structured products (assuming the underlying asset's volatility is more stable).
K33's cross-asset performance charts show that in 2025, Bitcoin ranks near the bottom in asset returns—despite outperforming for years in previous cycles, it lagged behind gold and stocks in 2025.
This "underperformance" combined with low volatility shifts Bitcoin's positioning from a "speculative satellite asset" to a "core macro asset"—risk similar to stocks but with return drivers uncorrelated with other assets.
Options markets also reflect this shift: recent implied volatility of Bitcoin options has declined in tandem with actual volatility, reducing hedging costs and making synthetic structured products more attractive. Previously, compliance departments often limited Bitcoin allocations citing "excessive volatility"; now, advisors have a quantitative basis: in 2025, Bitcoin's volatility is below Nvidia's, below many tech stocks, and comparable to high-beta sectors. This opens new investment channels for Bitcoin: inclusion in 401(k) retirement plans, registered investment advisor (RIA) allocations, and insurance portfolios with strict volatility limits. K33's forward-looking data predicts that as these channels open, 2026 ETF net inflows will surpass 2025, creating a "self-reinforcing cycle": more institutional capital inflow → volatility declines → unlocking more institutional mandates → more capital inflows. But the market's "calm" is conditional. K33's derivatives analysis shows that throughout 2025, Bitcoin perpetual contracts' open interest steadily increased in a "low volatility, strong rally" environment, culminating in the October 10 liquidation event—wiping out $19 billion of leveraged longs in a single day.
This sell-off was related to President Trump's tariff statements and widespread "safe-haven" sentiment, but the core mechanism remains derivatives: excessive leverage among longs, weekend illiquidity, and margin calls. Even with an actual volatility of 2.2%, extreme volatility days triggered by leverage liquidation could still be hidden.
The difference now is: such events are resolved within hours rather than weeks; and with spot demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries providing a "price floor," markets can recover quickly.

The structural outlook for 2026 supports the view that "volatility will remain low or decline further": K33 expects that as two-year Bitcoin supply stabilizes, early holders' sales will decrease; additionally, regulatory signals are positive—U.S. CLARITY Act, comprehensive implementation of Europe’s MiCA, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America opening 401(k) and wealth management channels.
K33's "Golden Opportunity" forecast predicts Bitcoin will outperform stock indices and gold in 2026—thanks to regulatory breakthroughs and new capital inflows, which will surpass the selling pressure from existing holders. Whether this forecast materializes remains uncertain, but the mechanisms driving it—liquidity deepening, institutional infrastructure improvement, regulatory clarity—indeed support low volatility.
Ultimately, Bitcoin will move away from the "speculative frontier" of 2013 or 2017 toward a "high liquidity, institutionally anchored macro asset."
This does not mean Bitcoin becomes "boring" (e.g., low returns or lacking narratives), but that the "rules of the game have changed": price paths are smoother, options markets and ETF flows are more important than retail sentiment, and the core market changes are reflected in structure, leverage levels, and the composition of trading parties.
In 2025, despite experiencing the largest regulatory and structural overhaul in history, Bitcoin has become a "regulated, stable institutional asset" from a volatility perspective. The value of understanding this shift lies in the fact that: low actual volatility is not a sign of "asset losing vitality," but a mark that "the market has matured enough to absorb institutional capital without crashing." The cycle has not ended; only the "cost" to drive market volatility has increased.