Resilience Testing Week: The Market Seeks a New Balance Amid Multiple Uncertainties

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.11 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 58.56%, amounting to $1.82 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $307.5 billion, a 0.25% decrease over the past 7 days. Stablecoins have experienced negative weekly growth for two consecutive weeks, with USDT making up 60.8%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen slightly while some have fallen. Notably: BTC has increased by 4.2% over 7 days, ETH by 6.92%, SOL by 7.93%, MYX by 84.42%, and PEPE by 54.1%.

This week, net inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US totaled $458.7 million; net inflows into US Ethereum spot ETFs reached $161.3 million.

Market Forecast (January 5 - January 9):

The current RSI index is 60.59 (neutral zone), the Fear & Greed index is 26 (higher than last week, in the typical fear zone), and the Altcoin Season Index is 39 (neutral, higher than last week).

BTC core range: $87,000 - $93,000

ETH core range: $3,000 - $3,500

SOL core range: $129 - $150

This week marks the first week of 2026. The net inflow into US spot ETFs has directly boosted the crypto market cap. After gold and silver hit new highs, prices pulled back. Amid capital outflows, cryptocurrencies absorbed some liquidity. Next week, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range with an upward trend. Short-term traders may consider “buying the dip and selling high.” Recently, small-cap altcoins have seen significant gains. The market outlook for 2026 is uncertain, so chasing high is not recommended.

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Weekly Major Events

December 29: Liu Lei, Vice President of the People’s Bank of China, announced that the PBOC will introduce the “Action Plan for Further Strengthening Digital RMB Management Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction.” The new digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecological system will officially launch on January 1, 2026.

December 29: Indian police in Hyderabad arrested a former Coinbase customer service representative suspected of involvement in the internal data leak disclosed by Coinbase in May this year. This is the first known arrest in the case, confirmed by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.

According to LatePost, Meta acquired the AI application Manus developer Butterfly Effect for billions of dollars. This is Meta’s third-largest acquisition, after WhatsApp and ScaleAI. Before the acquisition, Manus was raising a new round of funding at a $2 billion valuation. Liu Yuan, partner at ZhenFund and angel investor in Butterfly Effect, said, “I almost doubted whether this was a fake offer.” The negotiations were completed in a very short time, just over ten days.

December 30: Trust Wallet announced compensation to affected users, with stolen assets totaling approximately $8.5 million.

December 31: Thanks to Federal Reserve rate cuts and a surge in AI investment enthusiasm, the global stock market in 2025 is expected to achieve its largest annual increase in six years. With only one trading day left in 2025, the MSCI Global Stock Index has already risen by 21%.

January 4: Tom Lee announced support for BitMine to increase authorized share capital; BMNR rose by 14.88%.

January 3: After 2 PM Beijing time, a massive explosion was reported in Caracas, Venezuela, triggering air raid sirens. Power supply was interrupted in an area near a large military base in the southern part of the city. Possibly affected by this incident, the crypto market experienced a certain degree of pullback.

Macroeconomics

December 31: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 were 199,000, the lowest since the week ending November 29, below market expectations of 220,000. The previous figure was revised from 214,000 to 215,000.

January 4: According to CME “Fed Watch” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 16.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 83.4%.

ETFs

Between December 29 and January 2, net inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $458.7 million; as of January 2, Grayscale’s GBTC had a total outflow of $25.193 billion, with holdings of $14.793 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT currently holds $69.313 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $119.546 billion.

Net inflows into US Ethereum spot ETFs reached $161.3 million.

Future Outlook

Project Developments

The Daily Gwei, a video program focused on Ethereum, will resume weekly updates on January 5, 2026.

The social app Based’s Christmas commemorative “Soul Binding” NFT claim deadline is January 7, 2026.

Web3 robot company XMAQUINA will collaborate with Virtuals Protocol for the DEUS community sale on January 8. The auction begins at 8:00 PM on January 8, with a FDV of $60 million (DEUS price: $0.06). At TGE, 33% will be liquid assets, and 67% will be linearly vested over 12 months. The public sale is open to all non-US contributors, and eligible wallets can receive a 20% DEUS reward, including OG rewards for previous genesis auctions. Contributing 10,000 USDC with the same wallet grants a 20% DEUS reward.

Important Events

January 7, 21:15: The US will announce December ADP employment numbers( thousand).

January 8, 21:30: The US will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3( thousand).

January 9, 21:30: The US will release December unemployment rate.

Token Unlocks

Hyperliquid will unlock 1.2 million team tokens on January 6, with subsequent unlocks on the 6th of each month.

Jito (JTO) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on January 7, worth approximately $5.4 million, representing 1.14% of circulating supply.

Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on January 9, worth about $6 million, representing 1.62% of circulating supply.

Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.44 billion tokens on January 10, valued at approximately $10.18 million, representing 2% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your trading. We analyze market trends through Weekly Insights and In-Depth Reports; with our exclusive column “Hot Coins Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets to reduce trial-and-error costs. Weekly, our researchers also engage in live sessions to interpret hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize Web3 opportunities.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing involves risks. We strongly recommend investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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