Will cryptocurrency policy become a focus as Trump's February State of the Union approaches?

President Trump will deliver the State of the Union Address on February 24th, and the context of this speech is quite complex. Currently, Trump’s approval rating has risen to 42%, the highest since October, but with the midterm elections approaching, the momentum for Democrats to regain control of Congress is strong, and political risks are increasing. The State of the Union is not only a summary of achievements but also a key platform for Trump to respond to political pressure and articulate policy positions. For the cryptocurrency market, this speech may involve highly关注 topics such as Bitcoin strategic reserves and digital asset regulation.

Political Background: Impeachment Threats and Election Pressure

According to the latest news, Trump has publicly warned that if Democrats regain control of Congress in the midterm elections, he will face a third impeachment. This is not a false statement but reflects the current reality of a divided Congress. Polls show Democrats are expected to win the House of Representatives, meaning that initiatives led by Republicans will face resistance, and legislative deadlock is imminent.

In this political environment, Trump’s State of the Union needs to do two things: first, boost morale among Republican members and rally support for the midterm elections; second, showcase achievements to voters, especially economic results (the US market reaching new highs is a key argument in this regard).

Cryptocurrency Policy Becomes a Suspense

Whether the State of the Union will address cryptocurrencies remains uncertain, but the progress of related policies is worth关注:

Strategic Bitcoin Reserves Implementation Issues

In March 2025, Trump signed Executive Order No. 14233, explicitly requiring that Bitcoin seized through criminal or civil procedures must be deposited into the “U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.” However, recent reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Justice is still selling Bitcoin, having sold 57.55 BTC (approximately $6.367 million) in November, directly violating Trump’s executive order.

Senator Cynthia Lummis has publicly questioned the legality of this practice, pointing out that “while other countries are increasing their Bitcoin holdings, we are squandering these strategic assets.” This contradiction is evident, and the State of the Union may serve as an opportunity for Trump to clarify his stance and correct implementation deviations.

Advancement of Cryptocurrency Regulation Legislation

According to reports, a highly anticipated cryptocurrency market structure bill is underway, aiming to clarify regulatory rules for digital assets. However, a divided Congress will delay reform progress and increase uncertainty in the crypto industry. Trump may need to address this in his speech.

Market Expectations and Risk Assessment

Market reactions indicate that political instability is affecting cryptocurrency performance. Analysis suggests that although political uncertainty may pressure altcoins and US-focused crypto companies, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against systemic risk could strengthen its safe-haven attributes.

Additionally, some market observers point out that Trump’s interventionist regime could accelerate de-dollarization, which might actually support demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin.

Summary

Trump’s February State of the Union will take place against the backdrop of rising political risks and chaotic enforcement of cryptocurrency policies. The key points of this speech may include: rallying support for the midterm elections, showcasing economic achievements, clarifying the direction of Bitcoin reserve policy enforcement, and advancing cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks. For the market, the critical factor is whether Trump will provide clearer policy signals for the crypto industry in his speech. In the current environment of increasing political uncertainty, such clarity is vital for stabilizing market expectations.