Tomorrow is a critical moment—on January 9, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on the Trump administration's tariff policies. This is not just a legal issue; for the global investment market, it is a true turning point.

The origin of the matter is actually quite simple: the Trump administration used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on a large scale, which resulted in collective lawsuits from over a thousand companies. The core issue boils down to one question—can the President arbitrarily use tariff powers without Congressional approval?

Recent analysis reports from Morgan Stanley offer an interesting prediction. They believe the Supreme Court will not give a clear-cut answer. Instead, the court is likely to "walk a tightrope"—limiting the scope of IEEPA in tariffs but not completely abolishing this tool. What does this mean? The Trump administration will probably turn to other channels, such as Section 232 (National Security Tariffs) and Section 301 (Intellectual Property Rights) to maintain the current high tariff levels.

In other words, this is not a big victory for Trump, nor is it a crushing defeat. Morgan Stanley's report explicitly states: "The Supreme Court has significant discretion to narrow the scope of current tariffs or restrict future applications, but it is unlikely to mandate the cancellation of these tariffs."

For investors, this signals an important message—the government’s tariff policy framework remains largely stable, and the risk of refunds will be minimized. For traders with global market exposure, this ruling may not cause significant volatility; instead, it represents a relatively clear policy certainty moment.