ETF delay + technical pressure, PENGU陷入 double dilemma

PENGU is currently facing a dual test of “event + technology.” The current price hovers around $0.0120, dealing with resistance from the downward trendline since November last year, while also absorbing negative sentiment from the SEC’s repeated delay of the Pudgy Penguins ETF decision. Market sentiment is cautious, and a key breakout or breakdown could occur in the near term.

Price in a Critical Technical Compression Phase

According to the latest data, PENGU is trading at $0.011949, showing a clear “consolidation” characteristic in recent movements.

This data clearly indicates: although there was nearly a 24% rebound in the past week, on a monthly basis, the token remains in a downtrend. This phenomenon usually suggests that the rebound is a technical correction rather than a change in direction.

Key Technical Level Analysis

Over the past seven days, PENGU’s trading range has been between $0.0096 and $0.0136. Currently, the price is testing the resistance zone at $0.0130-$0.0135. The significance of this zone lies in the fact that it is both a previous dense trading area and coincides with short-term moving averages. This “multi-layered pressure” explains why trading activity is cooling down—traders are waiting for confirmation signals of a breakout or breakdown.

Support levels below are equally critical. The $0.0120 level has been tested multiple times; if it fails, the token could revisit $0.0103 or even test lower cycle supports. From the Relative Strength Index (RSI), although it has rebounded into a more bullish zone, demand has improved but not to an extreme level, indicating a lack of strong breakout confirmation.

SEC Delay of ETF Decision as a Sentiment Suppressor

Regulatory uncertainty is one of the core reasons for current price pressure. The delay of the Pudgy Penguins ETF decision, filed by Canary Capital, has been pushed back again, with a new deadline set for mid-March 2026.

This is not the first delay. The ETF was initially filed in 2025 and has been postponed multiple times. The logic behind the delay is worth noting: because the product involves both physical NFTs and PENGU tokens, its structure is significantly more complex than traditional crypto asset ETFs. The SEC needs to evaluate multiple aspects, including NFT valuation mechanisms, asset custody methods, and compliance pathways, which are not quick to resolve.

Market Expectations for ETF Highly Sensitive

After the delay was announced, PENGU briefly declined. This reflects the market’s focus on ETF approval. Once approved, it typically brings liquidity and institutional interest to related assets; conversely, delays or rejection can dampen market sentiment. The market is currently in a “waiting for the final decision” state, and this uncertainty naturally suppresses new capital inflows.

Derivatives Data Reflect Cautious Market Attitude

From trading behavior, the trading volume and open interest of PENGU-related contracts have both slightly decreased. This usually indicates that some short-term funds are actively reducing their exposure—typical of a “consolidation and wait-and-see” phase.

This phenomenon is common in scenarios such as: before key events, at critical technical levels, or during uncertain market sentiment. PENGU currently faces all three conditions—ETF decision pending, technical compression, and cautious market sentiment.

Key Points to Watch Moving Forward

In the short term, two factors will determine PENGU’s movement:

• Technical: Whether it can effectively break through the resistance zone at $0.0130-$0.0135 or fall below the support at $0.0120
• Event: SEC’s final stance on the Pudgy Penguins ETF in mid-March

Any confirmation of these variables could change the current stalemate. An effective technical breakout may preemptively boost market sentiment; if the ETF news turns positive before March, it could trigger a new rally. Conversely, the opposite is also possible.

Summary

PENGU is currently in a typical “event-driven + technical compression” stage. The price is hovering near key technical levels, market sentiment is cautious due to ETF delays, and derivatives trading volume reflects prudent capital behavior. Breakouts or breakdowns could happen in the short term, but directional confirmation depends on technical signals or event developments. For investors following this project, the ETF decision in mid-March and recent technical breakthroughs are two critical points to watch closely.