预测市场反转：Kalshi上的98%概率在几秒内崩盘，逆向交易者获得50倍收益

2026-01-09 08:08:10

【区块律动】预测市场真的能让人在瞬间翻身。1月9日的事儿挺有意思——Kalshi上那个关于白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt讲话时长的预测，原来概率显示98%会超过65分钟。听起来稳得不行，结果呢？人家在最后几秒钟直接收场了。

那些押注"不会超过"的交易者笑了。几秒钟的功夫，50倍收益就到手了。这就是预测市场的魅力——也是它的疯狂之处。市场定价有时候看起来板上钉钉，但实际执行层面往往充满变数。98%的概率在现实面前也不是保险箱。对于在预测平台上交易的人来说，这既是风险示范，也是机会窗口。

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

AirdropAnxiety

· 01-12 03:01

98% can also fail, this is reality, data can never outweigh the variables in execution.

View OriginalReply0

PanicSeller

· 01-11 17:46

98% can also fail, and that's why I will never be able to earn that 50x...

View OriginalReply0

LiquidatedAgain

· 01-09 08:30

98% really got wrecked, this is exactly the most magical part of the prediction market... Feeling like being liquidated again and again.

View OriginalReply0

GetRichLeek

· 01-09 08:29

98% probability of collapse, I might as well not trust technical analysis anymore, just jump off a building

View OriginalReply0

ForeverBuyingDips

· 01-09 08:13

There's a 98% chance it can crash instantly too. This is the true skill of prediction markets—betting on the right direction can really turn things around overnight.

View OriginalReply0