2026-01-09 08:22:48

A global asset management firm recently released an in-depth report on the long-term prospects of Bitcoin, authored jointly by the company's Digital Asset Research Director and Senior Analyst. They constructed multiple scenario models to forecast Bitcoin's future performance.

Under the baseline scenario, the model indicates that Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050, representing an approximate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%. This assumption is based on Bitcoin accounting for 5-10% of global trade and becoming a reserve asset for central banks, constituting 2.5% of their balance sheets.

What if the market enters a bear phase? In a conservative scenario, the growth rate would slow significantly, with an annual increase of only 2%, reaching about $130,000 per coin by 2050. Conversely, in an extremely optimistic "super Bitcoinization" scenario—where Bitcoin accounts for 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP—the theoretical price could soar to $53.4 million per coin, with a CAGR of up to 29%.

What is the core recommendation of the report? The institution believes that Bitcoin has enormous potential as a strategic, low-correlation asset within institutional portfolios. They suggest allocating 1-3% of most diversified investment portfolios to Bitcoin. For investors with higher risk tolerance, historical data indicates that increasing the allocation to 20% can achieve optimal returns. The firm’s view is that Bitcoin is gradually moving beyond mere speculation, demonstrating genuine potential as an asset allocation tool.

BTC-0,07%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

NFTRegretDiary

· 3h ago

Here we go again with the pie-in-the-sky predictions, 2.9 million by 2050? Let's see if you can make it that far first. The scenario of 53.4 million is so optimistic... this data stacking feels too forced. A 1-3% allocation is still somewhat reasonable; 20% is a bit aggressive, isn't it? There are so many reports, the key is whether we can survive the next round of sharp decline. I only half believe in this model; the other half is just imagination. Asset allocation and low correlation again, it sounds sleep-inducing... just tell me what to do, really. Historical data? That stuff is useless in the crypto world.

View OriginalReply0

MetaNomad

· 01-10 01:27

$2.9 million? Forget it, 2050 is still so far away. I'm more concerned about whether we can break 100,000 next year. Once again, big institutions are starting to be optimistic. Is this really true this time? Or are they just trying to cut the leeks again? Allocating 20%? These people really dare to say that. I want to see who can withstand that volatility. 130,000 vs. 53.4 million, the gap is just too outrageous. It feels no different from blind guessing. Finally, someone said that Bitcoin is not purely gambling anymore. It was about time to see it that way. Institutions are banding together for mutual support, which shows they are not particularly confident either. That 53.4 million assumption is overly optimistic. Bitcoin accounting for 10% of GDP? No way. A 1-3% allocation sounds conservative, but it also means they are a bit afraid. This report is probably just looking for reasons to justify entry. Got it.

View OriginalReply0

CryingOldWallet

· 01-09 08:51

Once again with the prediction of "29 million USD," hearing it makes my ears calloused haha 534 million? Dream on? Or are these institutions just trying to attract attention with such numbers 1-3% allocation? That's like taking a sip of water, not very meaningful 290 million USD… I won't even know if I'm still around in 2050, so don't ask me A conservative 130,000 is okay, at least more realistic That 20%… I think I'll pass Once again, some institution or report, and it's still using this in 2024 Wow, a compound annual growth rate of 29%, I think the actual growth rate of imagination is 100%

View OriginalReply0

ForkPrince

· 01-09 08:44

5.34 million per coin? Are you here just telling stories? I don't believe you. Wait... they recommend a 20% allocation? Isn't that just a gambler's mentality? I think the baseline of 2.9 million is still worth discussing, but isn't that extremely optimistic scenario really just a joke? Will the central bank really treat Bitcoin as a reserve? Ha, you're overthinking, everyone. This report is just giving institutions a reason to get on board... understand? The conservative scenario of 130,000 is actually realistic, a 2% growth rate is like sleeping. Whether we live to see 2050 or not, it's hard to say; let's just focus on living well this year first. However, the 1-3% allocation suggestion isn't really unreasonable, better than all-in. The report is quite hyped... but who can truly predict what will happen 25 years from now 🤔? Honestly, this is just institutions finding ways to justify themselves.

View OriginalReply0

ProofOfNothing

· 01-09 08:39

2.9 million USD? LOL, does this number account for inflation in 2050? Just want to ask when these institutions will start trusting Bitcoin... Central bank reserves at 2.5%? Feels like they're just making up stories again. 20% allocation? Really daring to say that, who will cry if there's a pullback later? This report has some substance, but it still feels too conservative. Model, model, but in the end, it's just gambling on luck. Is the figure of 53.4 million serious? That's a bit outrageous. Bitcoin didn't move much last year, and now they're starting to hype it again. A 1-3% allocation is what prudent investors should do. Talking about detaching from speculative attributes? I just lol. Is this institution trying to get us to take the bait... 2.9 million sounds okay, but whether to trust it is another matter.

View OriginalReply0

WalletInspector

· 01-09 08:29

Here we go again, talking big about 2.9 million or 53.4 million, just forget it haha --- Things in 2050, who the hell can predict that now... --- Central bank reserves at 2.5%? Dream on, my friend --- I believe in 1-3% allocation, 20% is basically gambling with your life --- Still the same point, when institutions say nice things, that's when you should be most cautious --- They insist on packaging Bitcoin as an asset allocation tool, but essentially it's still gambling --- Can the bottom line of 130,000 in a bear market hold? That's the key --- The real potential lies in breakthroughs at the institutional level, not these model figures

View OriginalReply0