The US December non-farm payroll report is out tonight, but to be honest, this data is mostly just a backdrop—unless something extreme happens, the market's expectation of a mid-year Fed rate cut is already deeply ingrained, and a standard report won't change much.

The market consensus expects around 70,000 new jobs. Frankly, many traders in the industry privately think the actual number might slightly exceed expectations, but the key point is that as long as the figure isn't outrageously unrealistic, it can actually reinforce the current narrative of "soft landing + Fed rate cuts."

The script for rate cuts has long been set: two 25 basis point cuts expected this year, with the first one starting in late April. Want to change this schedule? Only if non-farm data pulls off a stunt—either shockingly high or chillingly low.

From an operational perspective, an increase of 70,000 to 100,000 is the most comfortable range for the stock market. Moderate economic slowdown, no signs of inflation rebound, stable rate cut pace—this is the textbook example of a "soft landing."

But once the data drops below 50,000, the market will panic—are we heading for a hard landing? Conversely, if the number surges above 125,000, the Fed's rate cut timetable will have to be pushed back, and they might only act in June.

Honestly, tonight's report is unlikely to cause much turbulence. Just look at current market positions and how volatility is priced—no one is betting heavily on a "shockingly bad non-farm number." Just sit back, watch the data come out, and keep moving forward.