A recent research report from a major asset management firm has garnered attention. The report analyzes Bitcoin's long-term market potential, authored jointly by the company's Digital Asset Research Head Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush.

The core forecast is quite bold. Under the baseline scenario, Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050, with an annual compound growth rate of approximately 15%. This model assumes Bitcoin will account for 5-10% of global trade and gradually become a reserve asset for central banks, constituting 2.5% of their balance sheets.

Of course, the differences across scenarios are significant. In a conservative bear market scenario, Bitcoin's annual growth rate would be only 2%, reaching about $130,000 per coin by 2050. But what if we truly enter a "super Bitcoinization" phase? Assuming Bitcoin accounts for 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP, the theoretical value could reach $53.4 million per coin, with a CAGR of 29%.

From an investment allocation perspective, the report suggests that a typical diversified portfolio should allocate only 1-3% to Bitcoin. However, for investors with strong risk tolerance, historical data indicates that allocating up to 20% can significantly optimize returns. The report concludes by emphasizing that Bitcoin's role as a low-correlation, strategic asset in institutional portfolios is on the rise.