2026-01-09 08:25:22

Bitcoin enters 2026, and this round of market movement is no longer the same rebound pattern seen at the beginning of previous cycles.

From a technical perspective, there are indeed some signals worth being optimistic about, but when looking at the larger structural environment, the conditions for a sustained bull market seem less sufficient. Historical experience tells us that when prices break below key support levels like the annual moving average, combined with insufficient trading volume and weak capital inflows, the cycle can easily shift into a more difficult phase.

On-chain data confirms this judgment. Large holders are gradually reducing their holdings in an orderly manner, and their selling pressure is enough to offset retail buying demand, resulting in the market falling into a long-term oscillating top pattern. This is not capitulation selling, nor the frantic top of a bubble, but a state of stalemate.

What’s more painful is that both realized market cap and new address growth data point to the same conclusion: **New money is not coming in, and new players are not very active**. This means that the current market lacks the driving force of fresh capital, and the growth potential of the market has been significantly compressed.

In other words, the bear market characteristics have not completely disappeared, and the main upward wave of a bull market has not truly started. Currently, it is more about the tug-of-war and testing among various forces, with structural pressures still present.

BTC-0,04%

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BlockchainFries

· 01-11 02:30

Large investors are reducing holdings so obviously, new money can't come in. To put it simply, they're just waiting. Retail investors are fighting here, while institutions are quietly pulling out. How is this market going to play out? The annual line has broken without a rebound yet. How long can the stalemate last? It feels like we need to wait until genuine incremental growth arrives. Right now, it's probably a phase of exhausting people's confidence.

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Blockwatcher9000

· 01-11 02:25

Large investors are quietly withdrawing, while retail investors are still buying in. This situation really can't hold up anymore. The most painful thing is that new money isn't coming in, indicating that market enthusiasm has long cooled off. Another top of oscillation? It doesn't feel that simple this time, maybe we're really entering a more difficult phase. What's the use of optimistic technicals when structural resistance is still there? The most annoying state of stalemate—neither falling nor rising, nobody can make money. The rhythm of large investors' moves this time looks like they are orderly retreating. The bear market hasn't truly left, and the bull market's main rally hasn't arrived yet. Being stuck in the middle is the most uncomfortable.

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TradingNightmare

· 01-10 19:24

Basically, it's big players dumping the market while retail investors are buying in. This kind of trading is unplayable.

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CantAffordPancake

· 01-09 08:47

The big players are selling, retail investors are buying in, this is the current situation... New money really can't get in.

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UnruggableChad

· 01-09 08:45

The big players are dumping, while retail investors are still buying. I've seen this script too many times. The fact that new money isn't coming in really hurts. To put it simply, nobody believes anymore.

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GateUser-cff9c776

· 01-09 08:43

Schrödinger's bull market, new money isn't coming in and we're still talking about it. According to this supply and demand curve, it can make people even more depressed. This round of actions by the big players perfectly exemplifies what bear market philosophy is—neither crashing the market nor going crazy, just slowly wearing down your mentality. What are retail investors hedging against? This is fundamentally a "power struggle" at the capital level. Even Buffett would have to sigh: who will pay for a story without an incremental market? According to on-chain data logic, this is not a rebound strategy at all. It's using insufficient trading volume and lack of funds to paint a picture of "the art of waiting" [dog head]. The state of stalemate tests human nature the most, even more than a direct crash, because you never know if it's a bottom test or if there's truly no hope.

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GasWastingMaximalist

· 01-09 08:29

Big players dump, retail investors keep buying... This is the current situation. Honestly, without new money coming in, there are no new tricks to play, just a market as dull as air. To put it simply, we are still in the consumption phase; don't expect a major upward wave.

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BuyHighSellLow

· 01-09 08:29

Large investors reduce holdings, retail investors get stuck holding the bag. I've seen this story too many times. New money really can't come in, no wonder it's been sideways trading every day.

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