Everyone is watching non-farm payroll data and Federal Reserve stance, but no one is paying attention to the real risk that could wipe out your account.

The throat of global trade is the Strait of Malacca. The narrowest point is only 5.4 kilometers. 70% of China's imported crude oil passes through here, and 40% of global trade volume also goes through this route. This is not just a shipping lane; it is the lifeline of the world economy.

What is the current logical chain in the market? Downward inflation pressure leads to the Fed cutting interest rates, which allows stocks and cryptocurrencies to continue rising. But what if something goes wrong in Malacca?

Energy supply could be cut off directly. Not a slow price increase, but panic-driven stampedes and hoarding causing stepwise price jumps. The scene of the 1973 oil crisis could replay, with crude oil prices soaring and pushing global inflation higher. Your previous assumption of rate cuts would become a joke. The Fed might not only be unable to cut rates but could be forced to raise them to protect the dollar exchange rate. The result? A double whammy of stocks and bonds, and cryptocurrencies won't be able to escape either.

And then there's the manufacturing sector. Rerouting shipping would increase costs and time by 15% to 30%. Modern industrial inventories are already as thin as paper; if the shipping lane is cut for a week, the entire supply chain will collapse. Export currencies in Japan, South Korea, and Europe will face sharp pressure, and trade uncertainty will soar.

In such extreme risk scenarios, no one will foolishly hold onto tech stocks and highly leveraged crypto positions. Capital will flood into safe-haven assets like physical gold, U.S. Treasuries, and energy futures. Your entire financial model built on "rate cuts and economic growth" will collapse instantly due to this sudden change in "input parameters."

Malacca is not a minor issue; once it faces a problem, it causes systemic shocks. So instead of obsessively studying non-farm payroll numbers every day, it’s better to pay more attention to geopolitical developments. That’s the real factor that can influence your account.