I recently came across an interesting study where a leading asset management firm released long-term price forecasts for Bitcoin, setting up three different scenario models.

In the baseline scenario, Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050, with an annual compound growth rate of about 15%. This forecast is based on an assumption: Bitcoin accounts for 5-10% of global trade volume and becomes a reserve asset on the balance sheets of various central banks, constituting 2.5% of their assets.

What about a more aggressive optimistic scenario? If Bitcoin's penetration rate is higher—covering 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP—the price could surge to $53.4 million, with the annual compound growth rate doubling to 29%. Conversely, a conservative scenario predicts a modest 2% annual growth rate, corresponding to a price of about $130,000.

From an investment perspective, this study offers very practical allocation advice. General investors might allocate 1-3% of their portfolio to Bitcoin, and if you can tolerate higher risk, even up to 20%. What's the core logic? Treat Bitcoin as a non-sovereign reserve asset; it can hedge against currency devaluation—especially in the context of developed countries facing high sovereign debt pressures, making this attribute even more attractive.