2026-01-09 08:27:24

I recently came across an interesting study. The VanEck Digital Asset Research team provided three price forecast scenarios for Bitcoin by 2050, with a baseline of $2.9 million per coin and an annual compound growth rate of about 15%. What are the underlying assumptions? Bitcoin accounting for 5–10% of global trade, while also making up 2.5% of central bank reserve asset allocations.

For a more conservative view? In a bear market scenario, the annual growth rate would be only 2%, reaching about $130,000 by 2050. But if "Bitcoinization" takes an extreme route—accounting for 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP—the theoretical value could soar to $53.4 million, corresponding to a 29% CAGR. Do the math to see how big the difference is.

From an investment perspective, VanEck's advice is quite practical. A typical diversified investment portfolio only needs 1–3% in Bitcoin. But if you have a high risk tolerance, historical data shows that allocating up to 20% can optimize returns.

The core logic isn't complicated: Bitcoin is evolving from a purely speculative asset into a strategic asset. As a low-correlation investment tool, its role in institutional portfolios is changing. Whether to allocate or how much depends mainly on your expectations for the next 10 years and your risk tolerance.

BTC1,53%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

zkNoob

· 01-11 13:16

2.9 million to 53.4 million, that's quite a jump... The 15% CAGR in the middle seems the most interesting.

View OriginalReply0

BuyHighSellLow

· 01-11 09:59

2.9 million USD? Dream on, that number is way too outrageous. I just want to know if the central bank will really allocate 2.5%. That's nonsense. 20% allocation? Are you trying to get rich overnight or go bankrupt overnight? This report looks like VanEck is just making empty promises to lure retail investors. But on the other hand, 53.4 million sounds pretty good... It would be perfect if it actually happens.

View OriginalReply0

LightningPacketLoss

· 01-09 08:56

2.9 million to 53.4 million, the difference is indeed outrageous... But to be honest, these predictions are all just armchair theories; the key still depends on what the central bank's attitude is. HODL still depends on your psychological resilience; it's not just about looking at the data. Wait, accounting for 20% of global trade? How crazy is that? Feels even harder than landing on the moon.

View OriginalReply0

SandwichTrader

· 01-09 08:55

$2.9 million? If Satoshi Nakamoto were alive, he'd be laughing his head off. He's already started hyping up big plans again.

View OriginalReply0

DuskSurfer

· 01-09 08:53

2.9 million for one piece? Just listen, the key still depends on how the central bank handles it; otherwise, it's all just paper wealth.

View OriginalReply0

BoredWatcher

· 01-09 08:44

$2.9 million sounds great, but do you really dare to allocate 20%? I'd rather stick to 1-3% for peace of mind.

View OriginalReply0

QuietlyStaking

· 01-09 08:39

2.9 million USD? It makes me a bit tempted, but on the other hand, the figure of 53.4 million is even more outrageous haha --- 130,000 to 53.4 million, the gap really skyrocketed, feels like they are in completely different dimensions --- I just want to know, on that day, can the BTC in our hands really be exchanged for that price, or is it just paper wealth again --- Allocating 20% risk depends on psychological resilience. I feel most people can't hold on to it --- Turning speculative assets into strategic assets sounds good, but will central banks really treat Bitcoin as a reserve? That’s a pretty big assumption --- 2050 is still far away, who knows what will happen by then. Talking about these now feels like an imagination game --- The core is risk tolerance. Basically, it depends on whether you have the guts, and it’s not really about how much money you have --- If the 53.4 million figure really comes true, that would be outrageous. Just thinking about Bitcoinization is enough

View OriginalReply0

NFT_Therapy

· 01-09 08:33

2.9 million dollars to 53.4 million? How optimistic do you have to be to believe that haha --- 1-3% allocation sounds stable, but true alpha investors have already gone 20% or even all in --- The key still depends on when the central bank will truly include BTC in its reserves, otherwise it's all just talk --- A 15% CAGR sounds great, but who dares to bet that it will still exist in 2050 --- Low correlation is really a feature; after adding it to my portfolio, its resilience has indeed improved --- Extreme scenario: over 50 million per coin? Having a dream is really nice --- Instead of stressing over how much to allocate, it's better to first understand your true risk tolerance --- Bear market at 130,000? That's still probably better than not knowing where we are now --- Predictions are always post-hoc, the main thing is to understand whether the logic of BTC as a strategic asset is correct --- The assumption that it accounts for 20% of global trade sounds a bit far-fetched, but who knows

View OriginalReply0

ChainMemeDealer

· 01-09 08:32

2.9 million dollars? Just hear it out, but it really depends on when the central banks actually start accumulating Bitcoin...

View OriginalReply0