2026-01-09 08:30:37

#密码资产动态追踪 The imminent Tariff Grand Trial: Wall Street in an Uproar

A court hearing that concerns the future of the US economy is counting down—can Trump's tariff policies stand firm? Various institutions are rushing to provide answers.

Interactive Brokers believes that if tariffs fail, the US manufacturing return plan will be derailed, and fiscal pressure will follow. In the end, interest rates will be pushed higher, but corporate profits might get some relief. Crossbridge's view is more direct: tariffs overturned → US dollar depreciation → steepening of the US Treasury yield curve. Bank of New York Mellon is optimistic about the stock market, especially the retail, consumer, and electronics sectors, which are expected to react swiftly.

However, JPMorgan Chase poured cold water on the optimism—fiscal issues may surface, but this president has many tricks up his sleeve, and he is likely to use legal maneuvers to reintroduce tariffs.

What about precious metals? The World Gold Council says gold prices may experience short-term volatility and corrections, but central banks' enthusiasm for buying gold remains, providing long-term support. Morgan Stanley is more optimistic: judges may not make a one-size-fits-all decision, and some tariffs might be retained. Wells Fargo presented data indicating that the S&P 500's pre-tax profit growth could reach 2.4% by 2026, suggesting potential for stock price gains.

Interestingly, Nomura Securities uncovered five alternative tax schemes proposed by the Trump administration, which are likely to replicate the current tariff system before 2027. KEY Advisors warns: if tariffs are truly reclaimed, market liquidity could suffer significant losses.

Prediction platforms provide more intuitive probabilities: Polymarket shows only a 25% chance that the Supreme Court will support tariffs, and a 26% chance of ordering refunds; Kalshi's data is even more suspenseful—the probability of completing refunds before 2027 is as high as 54%.

With this hammer coming down, will the market cheer or liquidity evaporate? The market is holding its breath.

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GasGrillMaster

· 01-12 06:42

This tariff issue, to put it simply, depends on what tricks Trump can pull. JPMorgan Chase's statement is spot on — the president has many tricks up his sleeve, and another legal maneuver is just around the corner.

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ForkLibertarian

· 01-11 23:21

These Wall Street folks are really overthinking it. Trump’s legal tactics are well-practiced and familiar. 54% chance of tariff refunds? Liquidity won’t collapse; history will repeat itself. Instead of worrying about how the courts will rule, it’s better to watch the central bank still frantically buying gold—that’s the real signal. JPMorgan Chase is once again bearish, but after so many years of switching from bearish to bullish, aren’t they tired of the game? The consumer sector in the stock market has already been translated; the key question is whether this time will really change anything.

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ChainMelonWatcher

· 01-09 09:00

JPMorgan's analysis this time is excellent. They changed the legal approach to reimpose tariffs—haha, this president's thinking is really quick. What are the chances of a 54% tax rebate? If liquidity collapses, how do we handle it? We need to do our homework in advance. Wall Street institutions each have their own opinions; it still depends on how the judge rules. The suspense is at its peak. If tariffs really come down hard, can precious metals outperform? The Gold Association says it's supported by central banks, so I believe half of it. Are the retail consumer electronics sectors about to take off? Let's wait and see the stock market's reaction—it's not certain.

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MetaverseHobo

· 01-09 08:56

JPMorgan's statement was spot on. Repackaging it with a different legal approach shows this president has tricks up his sleeve. The fundamentals are very solid.

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CoffeeNFTrader

· 01-09 08:55

Morgan's recent cold splash was a bit harsh, but the old tricks of changing the soup without changing the medicine are indeed reliable. Precious metals are fluctuating in the short term but stable in the long term, it's a proven strategy.

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GasGuzzler

· 01-09 08:53

Wall Street folks love to speculate on probabilities; when it comes to critical moments, it's all about Trump's face... JPMorgan sees through this move; just change the skin and start over. That 25% on Polymarket is too outrageous; how can the judge be so firm? If liquidity evaporates, retail investors better slip away. I'm optimistic about the 2026 wave; Wells Fargo's data still has some substance. The central bank's move to buy gold is clever; ultimately, gold will rise. Tariffs keep fluctuating; it's better to get on the train early and invest in leading consumption stocks. Who can predict this situation... just wait for the court to hammer down. If there's really a 54% chance of tax refunds, that would be a big event; the market will be volatile. Gold prices have support this round, so there's no need to fear; long-term optimism.

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