#密码资产动态追踪 Don't dwell on non-farm payroll data; the real game-changers are never found in the US employment report.

Let's look at the key channels. Once there's a disturbance there, the market doesn't just adjust—it gets knocked back and re-priced.

The logic is actually very straightforward:

Energy is the trigger for the whole system. Blocked shipping lanes, tense situations, supply chain controls—crude oil jumps sharply overnight. This isn't a gentle rise but a panic-driven rush to stockpile.

Once energy prices fluctuate, the entire story of "inflation peaking → central bank rate cuts → asset recovery" collapses. The Fed is forced to turn hawkish, and both the stock and bond markets suffer.

Additional damage follows directly:

Rerouted transportation causes costs to skyrocket and delays to lengthen, pushing already tight inventories in manufacturing into a crisis. Trade-sensitive currencies like the yen and won are the first to depreciate.

At the trading level, there's only one outcome:

Tech stocks, altcoins, high-leverage strategies—all high-beta assets are being violently liquidated. Long positions built on rate cut expectations become invalid. Volatility skyrockets, trend strategies instantly fail.

Where will the funds flow? Gold → US Treasuries → energy futures, the roadmap is clear.

The core conclusion is simple: the issue with shipping lanes isn't about stop-losses; it's about completely changing the way you think about positions.