2026-01-09 08:31:21

The release of US non-farm payroll data has entered a sensitive period in the cryptocurrency market. Within just 2 hours, prices commonly experienced sharp fluctuations of over 3%-5%, and in extreme cases, triggered "price spikes," leading to tragic scenarios of both longs and shorts being wiped out.

However, the power of this volatility is waning. The reality is that 60% of large US banks have integrated Bitcoin services, and spot ETFs continue to absorb funds, surpassing the annual new mining output. Institutional capital entering the market has changed the game, and Bitcoin's pricing logic is quietly shifting—from sensitivity to macroeconomic data to a focus on on-chain activity and regulatory policies. The influence of non-farm payroll data is beginning to fade, serving more as a short-term "interlude" that is quickly absorbed after a concentrated release, making it difficult to shake the long-term trend.

So, what is the real outlook on non-farm payroll? A simple breakdown: strong non-farm data → expectations of rate hikes increase → short-term declines are likely; weak non-farm data → expectations of rate cuts increase → opportunities for rebounds. But fundamentally, the true drivers of Bitcoin market movements are still the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and the US dollar trend. Data releases inevitably cause volatility, but the direction and magnitude of that volatility ultimately depend on how these two variables move.

BTC0,34%

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HashRateHustler

· 01-09 09:01

Institutional entry indeed changes the game, but we retail investors still need to keep an eye on these two data points --- Basically, it's the Federal Reserve and the US dollar dominating; non-farm payrolls are just a clown --- 60% of major banks are connected, feeling more secure holding coins now --- Volatility decay? I still saw sharp drops and surges on non-farm payroll day, not so optimistic --- On-chain activity is the future; macro data is gradually becoming background noise --- Double kill with the needle insertion is my eternal pain; why dare I still play this now? --- ETF size has surpassed mining growth; I've looked at these numbers a lot, but the coin price still drops --- Simply put, just watch the Federal Reserve's expectations; non-farm data should have been sidelined long ago --- These two factors truly determine the rise and fall; everything else is just floating clouds --- Wait, can institutions really stabilize the coin price? Feels still as treacherous

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SandwichDetector

· 01-09 08:54

Institutional entry has indeed changed the flavor; now the non-farm payrolls are not as scary.

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RektRecorder

· 01-09 08:37

Pin insertion is back again, this time can it really cut me off? Institutions have truly changed the game, I feel like my 5x leverage is getting more and more unreliable. Non-farm payrolls are just a smokescreen; the key is how the Fed folks are thinking. Instead of studying non-farm payrolls, it's better to watch whale wallets—that's the real truth. This wave of ETF bloodsucking is really scary; my holdings have decreased again. So, the volatility decay is a scam, yet I still get cut. The dollar trend is the big brother; Bitcoin is just a little brother. Speaking of which, once institutions enter the market, retail investors like us have nothing to do with it. When non-farm data is weak and rebounds, what's the use? It drops even harder. Looks like I need to think long-term; short-term volatility really can't kill me anymore.

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ShibaMillionairen't

· 01-09 08:35

Institutional entry truly changes the game, and Non-Farm Day is no longer a slaughterhouse.

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GateUser-521a7c4f

· 01-09 08:31

BTC ETH Buy, buy, buy at such a low market cap. Everyone buys together. The consensus on any coin will increase in value. Bitcoin relies on everyone's consensus. The lower the market cap, the greater the opportunity. Little bee, honey is very sweet and makes people have a good memory. It is a hardworking little bee. Where are the flowers? The little bee goes there. It represents beauty. Everyone's consensus is to buy, buy, buy. It immediately turns into 999. whales are coming soon. Still buy, buy, buy. In the future, wherever life is beautiful, go there.

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